Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 8 December 2025, Monday


	Mathare United		Mara Sugar

	1	X	2
	2.42	2.78	2.98
	2.52	2.73	2.88
	2.16	2.86	3.56	Watch
	2.45	2.5	3.1
	2.52	2.72	2.88
	2.1	2.8	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.11)	2.73 ↓ (2.8)	3.17 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathare United
38.3%

Draw
33.1%

Mara Sugar
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

32.3%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

31.3%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathare United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Mara Sugar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathare United than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mathare United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Mathare United - Mara Sugar Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Mathare United will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Mara Sugar will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Mara Sugar (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mara Sugar (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Mara Sugar (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Mara Sugar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Mathare United has had a series of away games.

Recently, Mara Sugar has had a series of home games.

Mathare United is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mathare United won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mathare United won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathare United
Kenyan Premier League
04.12.25	Nairobi United - Mathare United	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Police FC - Mathare United	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Mathare United - Kakamega Homeboyz	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	APS Bomet - Mathare United	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	AFC Leopards - Mathare United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WLWTL
- Mara Sugar FC
Kenyan Premier League
29.11.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Mara Sugar - Kenya CB	0:1 ✺
15.11.25	Posta Rangers - Mara Sugar	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Mara Sugar - AFC Leopards	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Mara Sugar - Bandari	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
28.03.25	Mathare United - Mara Sugar	2:1
18.01.25	Mara Sugar - Mathare United	3:0
Kenyan Super League
22.06.24	Mara Sugar - Mathare United	1:0
22.10.23	Mathare United - Mara Sugar	2:0

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