Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday


	Mara Sugar		Tusker

	1	X	2
	2.48	2.52	3.15
	2.49	2.56	3.25
	2.78	2.94	2.54	Watch
	2.46	2.65	3.37
	2.5	2.54	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.78)	2.64 ↓ (2.91)	3.09 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mara Sugar
35.9%

Draw
34.6%

Tusker
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

31.2%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

31.7%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mara Sugar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Tusker has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tusker might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tusker could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mara Sugar - Tusker Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Mara Sugar (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Tusker (2.04) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mara Sugar (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tusker (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 10).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mara Sugar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Mara Sugar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Tusker - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.07%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mara Sugar FC
Kenyan Premier League
22.11.25	Mara Sugar - Kenya CB	0:1 ✺
15.11.25	Posta Rangers - Mara Sugar	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Mara Sugar - AFC Leopards	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Mara Sugar - Bandari	0:0 ✺
28.10.25	Sofapaka - Mara Sugar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LTWTT
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
22.11.25	Gor Mahia - Tusker	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Tusker - Police FC	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Bidco United - Tusker	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Kakamega Homeboyz - Tusker	1:1 ✺
29.10.25	Tusker - Kariobangi Sharks	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
06.04.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	1:1
27.11.24	Tusker - Mara Sugar	2:1

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