Match Info

Premier League - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday


	APS Bomet		Tusker

	1	X	2
	4.05	2.98	1.9
	4.43	2.98	1.88	Watch
	3.8	2.75	2
	3.64	2.89	2.08
	4.2	3	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↑ (3.11)	2.92 ↓ (2.99)	1.94 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

APS Bomet
22.5%

Draw
31%

Tusker
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

30.6%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

29.9%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

APS Bomet has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that APS Bomet's form might have worsened.

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tusker's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for APS Bomet than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for APS Bomet, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tusker, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

APS Bomet - Tusker Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
81', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 6).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

APS Bomet may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Tusker - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 39.96%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- APS Bomet FC
Kenyan Premier League
16.12.25	Kenya CB - APS Bomet	4:2 ✺
12.12.25	APS Bomet - Posta Rangers	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	APS Bomet - Bandari	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Sofapaka - APS Bomet	0:0 ✺
25.11.25	Gor Mahia - APS Bomet	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 LTWTW
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
17.12.25	Tusker - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Sofapaka - Tusker	0:2 ✺
05.12.25	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Gor Mahia - Tusker	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWWWL

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