Match Info

USL League One

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Lancaster Municipal Stadium (Lancaster, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Canada	fubo Sports Network
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+, SportsEngine Play


	AV Alta		Charlotte Independence

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.85	3.40	2.10
	2.80	3.40	2.17
	3.06	3.72	2.07
	3.08	3.76	2.09	Watch
	3.00	3.65	2.04
	3.03	3.50	2.06	Watch
	2.95	3.40	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.8)	3.55 ↑ (3.45)	2.08 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AV Alta
30.7%

Draw
25.7%

Charlotte Independence
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

26%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

24.8%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AV Alta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Charlotte Independence has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AV Alta than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Charlotte Independence than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

AV Alta - Charlotte Independence Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Smith D. (G) 2. Ortiz C. 44. Pehlivanov K. 16. Ceja E. 3. Ortiz A. 6. Lay O. 21. Villalobos J. 11. Aoumaich I. 10. Ibarra M. (C) 18. Aoumaich A. 99. Bahena Jr C.	28. Levy M. (G) 17. Dimick C. (C) 14. Manin R. 5. Romero J. 3. Skinner J. 8. Jaime C. 6. Fuchs J. 11. Ortiz V. 10. Bakero J. 7. Saydee P. 26. Marou S.
Substitutes
5. Alassane M. 19. Anderson C. 20. Antwi G. 7. Desdunes J. 30. Gonzalez M. (G) 24. Higareda S. 32. Jahng E. 12. Relerford N. 15. Winum M.	24. Amaya J. 13. Guffroy M. 16. Lyons M. 9. Manzinga C. 21. Nare T. 1. Tasouris G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Bakero J. (Penalty Awarded),
36', Ortiz C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Aoumaich I. ↓, Desdunes J. ↑,
57', Jaime C. 🟨,
68', Ibarra M. ↓, Higareda S. ↑,
68', Aoumaich A. ↓, Anderson C. ↑,
73', Bakero J. ↓, Amaya J. ↑,
73', Saydee P. ↓, Lyons M. ↑,
73', Ortiz V. ↓, Guffroy M. ↑,
75', Lay O. ↓, Antwi G. ↑,
79', Marou S. 🟨,
82', Marou S. ↓, Manzinga C. ↑,
82', Romero J. ↓, Nare T. ↑,
87', Guffroy M. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 1, Desdunes J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Alta is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Charlotte Ind is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Charlotte Ind has had a series of home games.

Charlotte Ind is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Alta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Charlotte Independ. ✔	29	18	6	5	67:42	25	60
13	AV Alta	29	8	8	13	35:42	-7	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AV Alta FC
USL League One
01.07.26	Union Omaha - AV Alta	3:1 ✺
24.06.26	Corpus Christi - AV Alta	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Greenville Triumph - AV Alta	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	AV Alta - Spokane Velocity	1:0 ✺
10.06.26	AV Alta - Sarasota Paradise	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LTWWW
- Charlotte Independence
USL League One
01.07.26	Charlotte Independence - Corpus Christi	2:1 ✺
USL Cup
24.06.26	Charlotte Independence - Greenville Triumph	1:0 ✺
USL League One
13.06.26	Charlotte Independence - Naples	4:3 ✺
10.06.26	Charlotte Independence - Union Omaha	2:0 ✺
03.06.26	Naples - Charlotte Independence	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
10.10.25	Charlotte Independence - AV Alta	3:2
24.05.25	AV Alta - Charlotte Independence	2:1

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