Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 10

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do CD das Aves (Vila das Aves)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine


	AVS		Tondela

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.05	2.35	Watch
	2.98	3.05	2.42	Watch
	3.14	3.21	2.33	Watch
				Watch
	3.19	3.19	2.47	Watch
	3.15	3.2	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↓ (3.14)	3.14 ↓ (3.21)	2.38 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AVS
30.4%

Draw
30%

Tondela
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

29.4%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

28.8%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AVS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AVS than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

AVS - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. AVS will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Tondela will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tondela: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - AVS (5.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. AVS (votes: 1 - 50%). Tondela (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Joao Goncalves (G) 35. Semedo R. 4. Bane S. 42. Devenish C. 2. Spencer D. 15. Grau J. 6. Assuncao G. 24. Kiki (C) 10. Barbosa R. 7. Tomane 14. Perea O.	31. Bernardo (G) 48. Manso T. 5. Afonso J. 20. Medina B. 21. Vita R. 15. Sithole S. 8. Tavares H. (C) 67. Yarlen 29. Siebatcheu J. 16. Rony Lopes 7. Pedro Maranhao
Substitutes
11. Akinsola T. 20. Duarte D. 19. Galletto T. 17. Lourenco B. 18. Nene 3. Paulo Vitor 8. Pedro Lima 12. Rivas D. 93. Simao (G)	2. Bebeto 30. Canizares L. (G) 17. Cavaleiro I. 97. Cicero 79. Felix H. 4. Marques C. 60. Maviram E. 32. Rodriguez J. 11. Rodriguez Y.
Coaches
Sousa J. P.	Vieira I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Rony Lopes ⚽,
38', Medina B. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Bane S. ⚽, Barbosa R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Yarlen ↓, Cavaleiro I. ↑,
46', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
57', Tavares H. 🟨,
62', 2 - 1, Perea O. ⚽, Spencer D. (A),
64', Manso T. ↓, Bebeto ↑,
64', Rony Lopes ↓, Felix H. ↑,
66', Barbosa R. ↓, Pedro Lima ↑,
66', Grau J. ↓, Lourenco B. ↑,
70', Tavares H. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
71', 2 - 2, Pedro Maranhao (Pen),
72', Spencer D. 🟨,
74', Perea O. ↓, Akinsola T. ↑,
74', Pedro Maranhao 🟨,
85', Kiki ↓, Rivas D. ↑,
85', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
87', Nene 🟨,
88', Sithole S. 🟨,
89', Rivas D. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

AVS is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Tondela has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tondela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tondela has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in AVS: Molina G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Tondela: Sithole S. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, AVS won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, AVS won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

AVS - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 30.07%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
25.10.25	Santa Clara - AVS	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	AVS - Alverca	1:3 ✺
27.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - AVS	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	AVS - Benfica	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Estoril Praia - AVS	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- CD Tondela
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.10.25	Tondela - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Vila Real - Tondela	1:5 ✺
Club Friendly
08.10.25	Ferrol - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Rio Ave - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
19.05.24	AVS - Tondela	0:1
14.01.24	Tondela - AVS	3:2

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