Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 22

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Tondela		Alverca

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3	Watch
	2.58	2.98	2.92	Watch
	2.63	3.07	3.06
	2.57	3.07	2.96	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9
	2.61	3.12	3.06	Watch
	2.5	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.74)	3.02 ↓ (3.26)	2.99 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
37%

Draw
31.3%

Alverca
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

29.8%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

29.9%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	55.6%	22.2%

Tondela - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Alverca will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Alverca (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 27. Conceicao R. 97. Cicero 15. Sithole S. 7. Pedro Maranhao 10. Hodge J. 90. Aiko M. 23. Kimpioka B.	13. Gomes A. (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 17. Moreira V. 26. Rhaldney 55. Chissumba 20. Figueiredo 9. Marezi 10. Chiquinho
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 79. Felix H. 48. Manso T. 70. Moudjatovic M. 32. Rodriguez J. 44. Silva J. 8. Tavares H. 26. van der Heide A.	14. Baseya S. 19. Clairicia M. 98. Garcia F. 6. Gui D. 3. Martinez J. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G) 11. Nuozzi C. 91. Sandro Lima 82. Spencer D.
Coaches
Bacci C.	Custodio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Marezi ⚽, Touaizi N. (A),
43', Kimpioka B. 🟨,
44', Touaizi N. 🟨,
45+7', Meupiyou B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sithole S. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
60', Aiko M. 🟨,
62', Hodge J. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
62', Bebeto ↓, Silva J. ↑,
67', Meupiyou B. 🟨,
70', Gomes A. 🟨,
71', Chiquinho ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
71', Figueiredo ↓, Gui D. ↑,
71', Marezi ↓, Clairicia M. ↑,
76', Marques C. ↓, van der Heide A. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Silva J. ⚽, Medina B. (A),
82', Chissumba ↓, Baseya S. ↑,
85', Rhaldney ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
87', Cicero 🟨,
87', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Manso T. ↑,
90+8', Conceicao R. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 10).

Tondela is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Alverca has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S. (Injury) Diarra S. (Muscle Injury) Leo Chu (Injury) Lincoln (Yellow Cards) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Tondela: Maviram E. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
07.02.26	Estoril Praia - Tondela	2:2 ✺
01.02.26	Tondela - Benfica	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Famalicão - Tondela	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Tondela - Braga	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Moreirense - Tondela	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TTLLL
- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
08.02.26	Benfica - Alverca	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Alverca - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Braga - Alverca	5:0 ✺
17.01.26	Alverca - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Alverca - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
12.09.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
11.05.25	Tondela - Alverca	1:2
12.01.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:1

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