The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tondela 29%
Draw 28.5%
Alverca 42.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
20.3%
24.9%
54.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
19.8%
25.1%
55.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tondela's performance.
Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alverca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-9.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tondela that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+12.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alverca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Tondela - Alverca Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
28. Carlao (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 4. Marques C. 6. Farru 12. Ze Ricardo 37. Mateus Sarara 97. Cicero 26. van der Heide A. 20. Felix H. 7. Cascavel 19. Tomane
91. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 21. Gomez S. (C) 4. Bojang Y. 12. James I. 20. Spencer D. 35. Rayan Lucas 93. Ze Rafael 55. Chissumba 26. Matheus Franca 19. Camara D. 22. Figueiredo
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 15. Carraca 95. da Silva R. (G) 14. Huarte X. 9. Joao Lima 3. Kamga I. 13. Sithole Y. 8. Tavares H. 77. Tiago Dias
14. Baseya S. 10. Chiquinho 6. Gui D. 24. Jemide M. 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 8. Moreira V. 9. Semedo V. 2. Touaizi N. 7. Vidigal A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
26', 🟨,
41', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Extra Time (2 - 0)
98', 1 - 0, Carraca ⚽,
100', 🟨,
105', 2 - 0, Tiago Dias ⚽,
120', (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.
Tondela could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
In this matchup, Alverca is considered the favorite to take the win.
In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Tondela has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:5 (averaging 0.8:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Tondela against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:3 goals (averaging 1:1.5 per game).
Portugal
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Carlao (G) 
Marques C. 
Farru 
van der Heide A. 
Bojang Y. 
James I. 
Camara D. 
Kamga I. 
Sithole Y. 
Tavares H. 
Baseya S. 
Gui D. 
Touaizi N. 
Vidigal A. 
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