Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 12

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
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Argentina	Disney+
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South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Spain	GolStadium
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United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV, Triller TV+


	AZ Alkmaar		PSV Eindhoven

	1	X	2
	3.4	4.33	1.85	Watch
	3.45	4.1	1.92
	3.62	4.25	1.93
	2.71	4.12	2.24	Watch
	3.51	4.48	1.91	Watch
	2.9	3.9	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.71)	4.2 ↑ (4.12)	1.99 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
29.3%

Draw
22.8%

PSV Eindhoven
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

22.9%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

23%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.

PSV Eindhoven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting PSV Eindhoven's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for PSV Eindhoven, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	8.7%	87%

AZ Alkmaar - PSV Eindhoven Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 1 - 4.3%). PSV will win (votes: 20 - 87%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSV: 73.3% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): PSV Eindhoven will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 24. Boogaard K. 26. Smit K. 7. Weslley Patati 10. Mijnans S. (C) 17. Jensen I. 9. Parrott T.	32. Kovar M. (G) 8. Dest S. 22. Schouten J. (C) 3. Gasiorowski Y. 2. Salah-Eddine A. 17. Mauro Junior 23. Veerman J. 27. Man D. 34. Saibari I. 5. Perisic I. 20. Til G.
Substitutes
75. Bouziane W. 15. Chavez Garcia M. 31. Deen D. (G) 4. Dekker M. 14. Natali A. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 6. Twisk N. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)	19. Bajraktarevic E. 21. Boadu M. 11. Driouech C. 6. Flamingo R. 39. Nagalo A. 4. Obispo A. 1. Olij N. (G) 9. Pepi R. 25. Sildillia K. 51. Smolenaars T. (G) 10. Wanner P.
Coaches
Martens M.	Bosz P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
1', Boogaard K. 🟨,
5', 0 - 1, Mauro Junior ⚽,
11', 0 - 2, Til G. ⚽, Saibari I. (A),
17', Salah-Eddine A. 🟨,
28', 0 - 3, Til G. ⚽, Mauro Junior (A),
34', 1 - 3, Mijnans S. ⚽, Boogaard K. (A),
44', Goes W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
60', Salah-Eddine A. ↓, Flamingo R. ↑,
62', 1 - 4, Veerman J. ⚽, Man D. (A),
68', Boogaard K. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,
70', Perisic I. ↓, Driouech C. ↑,
71', Saibari I. ↓, Pepi R. ↑,
71', Gasiorowski Y. ↓, Obispo A. ↑,
72', Weslley Patati ↓, Sin M. ↑,
72', Owusu-Oduro R. ↓, Zoet J. ↑,
84', Goes W. ↓, Dekker M. ↑,
84', Jensen I. ↓, Bouziane W. ↑,
88', Man D. ↓, Bajraktarevic E. ↑,
89', 1 - 5, Til G. ⚽, Driouech C. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 0.

AZ is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

PSV is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

PSV may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

PSV is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Ankle Injury) Daal R. (Injury) Kasius D. (Injury) Kwakman D. (Injury) Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Meerdink M. (Injury) Sin M. (Injury)

There will not play in PSV: Kuhn W. (Knee Injury) Plea A. (Knee Injury) van Bommel R. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, AZ won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 29:45. (average 1.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 13:26. (average 1.3:2.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Crystal Palace - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
02.11.25	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Utrecht	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Slovan Bratislava	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWWW
- PSV Eindhoven
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - PSV Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
31.10.25	PSV Eindhoven - Fortuna Sittard	5:2 ✺
26.10.25	Feyenoord - PSV Eindhoven	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	PSV Eindhoven - Napoli	6:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	PSV Eindhoven - Go Ahead Eagles	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.25	PSV Eindhoven - AZ Alkmaar	2:2
19.10.24	AZ Alkmaar - PSV Eindhoven	1:2
06.04.24	PSV Eindhoven - AZ Alkmaar	5:1
17.12.23	AZ Alkmaar - PSV Eindhoven	0:4
28.05.23	AZ Alkmaar - PSV Eindhoven	1:2
12.11.22	PSV Eindhoven - AZ Alkmaar	0:1
05.02.22	PSV Eindhoven - AZ Alkmaar	1:2

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