Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 10

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Nijhuis B. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, Sportsnet World, Sportsnet World Now
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 9
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Indonesia	Kompas TV, Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN Extra
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Russia	TV Start
Slovakia	Arena sport 1, Sport TV2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 3
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	AZ Alkmaar		Utrecht

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.33	5	Watch
	1.6	4.45	4.9
	1.65	4.4	4.84
	1.66	4.31	4.43	Watch
	1.62	4.42	5.09	Watch
	1.6	4.3	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.6)	4.37 ↑ (4.33)	4.84 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
58.6%

Draw
21.8%

Utrecht
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

21.7%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

18.4%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for AZ Alkmaar have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Utrecht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AZ Alkmaar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

AZ Alkmaar - Utrecht Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Utrecht will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Utrecht (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Utrecht (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 30. Kasius D. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 26. Smit K. 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 17. Jensen I.	1. Barkas V. (G) 2. Horemans S. 3. van der Hoorn M. (C) 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 16. El Karouani S. 14. Iqbal Z. 27. Engwanda A. 26. Jonathans M. 20. de Wit D. 15. Blake A. 9. Min D.
Substitutes
15. Chavez Garcia M. 27. Daal R. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 21. Kwakman D. 14. Natali A. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)	8. Bozdogan C. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 10. Cathline Y. 11. Demircan E. 40. Didden M. 5. Finnsson K. 91. Haller S. 55. Murkin D. 22. Rodriguez M. 6. van den Berg D. 24. Viergever N. 21. Zechiel G.
Coaches
Martens M.	Jans R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Parrott T. ⚽, Weslley Patati (A),
27', Blake A. 🟨,
34', 2 - 0, Parrott T. ⚽, Kasius D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', 3 - 0, Mijnans S. ⚽, Weslley Patati (A),
57', van der Hoorn M. ↓, Didden M. ↑,
59', Parrott T. (Pen),
63', Blake A. ↓, Cathline Y. ↑,
63', de Wit D. ↓, Haller S. ↑,
64', Iqbal Z. ↓, Zechiel G. ↑,
69', 3 - 1, Zechiel G. ⚽, El Karouani S. (A),
75', Parrott T. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
75', Weslley Patati ↓, Sin M. ↑,
75', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Kwakman D. ↑,
83', Jonathans M. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
86', Smit K. ↓, Dekker M. ↑,
88', 4 - 1, de Wit M. ⚽, Mijnans S. (A),
90+1', de Wit M. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 0.

In recent matches, AZ has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Utrecht is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, AZ is a strong favorite.

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Inactive) Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Meerdink M. (Injury)

There will not play in Utrecht: Jensen V. (Muscle Injury) Vesterlund N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, AZ won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 36:28. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:14. (average 2.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Slovan Bratislava	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	AEK Larnaca - AZ Alkmaar	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
28.09.25	NEC Nijmegen - AZ Alkmaar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWLL
- FC Utrecht
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Freiburg - Utrecht	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	Utrecht - Volendam	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Feyenoord - Utrecht	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Brann - Utrecht	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
28.09.25	Utrecht - Heerenveen	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
18.01.25	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	0:0
29.09.24	AZ Alkmaar - Utrecht	1:2
19.05.24	AZ Alkmaar - Utrecht	3:3
03.12.23	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	1:1
Dutch KNVB Beker
07.02.23	AZ Alkmaar - Utrecht	1:2 ET
Dutch Eredivisie
28.01.23	AZ Alkmaar - Utrecht	5:5
09.10.22	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	1:2

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