Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Philips Stadion (Eindhoven)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 8
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	HBO Max
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 6
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport 4
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport OTT 3
North-central-america	ESPN 5 Norte
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Canal+ Extra 6
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-africa	SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
South-america	ESPN 4 South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 6
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus


	PSV Eindhoven		Napoli

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.3
	2.95	3.55	2.4
	3.03	3.6	2.4
	1.69	3.44	5.50	Watch
	3.08	3.68	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (3.13)	3.55 ↓ (3.62)	3 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

PSV Eindhoven
37.2%

Draw
28.8%

Napoli
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

26.3%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

26.2%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

PSV Eindhoven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in PSV Eindhoven's performance.

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Napoli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with PSV Eindhoven that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Napoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.2%	23.3%	46.5%

PSV Eindhoven - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. PSV will win (votes: 12 - 28.6%). Napoli will win (votes: 20 - 47.6%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli: 32.5% – 62.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. PSV (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Napoli (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Kovar M. (G) 6. Flamingo R. 22. Schouten J. (C) 3. Gasiorowski Y. 2. Salah-Eddine A. 34. Saibari I. 17. Mauro Junior 23. Veerman J. 27. Man D. 20. Til G. 5. Perisic I.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 31. Beukema S. 4. Buongiorno A. 37. Spinazzola L. 6. Gilmour B. 21. Politano M. 99. Anguissa F. 11. De Bruyne K. 8. McTominay S. 27. Lucca L.
Substitutes
19. Bajraktarevic E. 21. Boadu M. 8. Dest S. 11. Driouech C. 39. Nagalo A. 4. Obispo A. 1. Olij N. (G) 9. Pepi R. 24. Schiks N. (G) 10. Wanner P.	69. Ambrosino G. 7. David Neres 20. Elmas E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 3. Gutierrez M. 5. Juan Jesus 70. Lang N. 1. Meret A. (G) 17. Olivera M. 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Bosz P.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
28', Gasiorowski Y. 🟨,
30', Veerman J. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, McTominay S. ⚽, Spinazzola L. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Buongiorno A. (Own goal),
38', 2 - 1, Saibari I. ⚽, Til G. (A),
42', Spinazzola L. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Gasiorowski Y. ↓, Obispo A. ↑,
54', 3 - 1, Man D. ⚽, Mauro Junior (A),
58', Beukema S. ↓, Juan Jesus ↑,
58', Spinazzola L. ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,
58', Gilmour B. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
70', Saibari I. 🟨,
73', Politano M. ↓, David Neres ↑,
76', Lucca L. 🟥,
80', 4 - 1, Man D. ⚽, Veerman J. (A),
85', De Bruyne K. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
85', Til G. ↓, Pepi R. ↑,
85', Perisic I. ↓, Driouech C. ↑,
85', Salah-Eddine A. ↓, Dest S. ↑,
86', 4 - 2, McTominay S. ⚽, David Neres (A),
87', 5 - 2, Pepi R. ⚽, Driouech C. (A),
88', Saibari I. ↓, Wanner P. ↑,
89', 6 - 2, Driouech C. ⚽, Pepi R. (A),
90', Driouech C. 🟨,

Preview

PSV is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Napoli has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in PSV: Kuhn W. (Knee Injury) Plea A. (Knee Injury) Sildillia K. (Muscle Injury) van Bommel R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Contini N. (Hand Injury) Hojlund R. (Thigh Injury) Lobotka S. (Muscle Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: McTominay S. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, PSV won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, PSV won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	PSV Eindhoven - Go Ahead Eagles	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Zwolle - PSV Eindhoven	0:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - PSV Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWTWT
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
18.10.25	Torino - Napoli	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Napoli - Genoa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Napoli - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Milan - Napoli	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Napoli - Pisa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
06.12.12	Napoli - PSV Eindhoven	1:3
04.10.12	PSV Eindhoven - Napoli	3:0

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