Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Philips Stadion (Eindhoven) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	06:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 8
Belgium	21:00	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	16:00	HBO Max
Canada	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	Disney+
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 6
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport 4
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	13:00	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport OTT 3
North Central America	—	ESPN 5 Norte
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Philippines	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 6
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Prima Sport PPV 3
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
South America	—	ESPN 4 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 6
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	22:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 7
United Kingdom	20:00	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus


	PSV Eindhoven		Napoli

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.3
	2.95	3.55	2.4
	3.03	3.6	2.4
	1.69	3.44	5.50	Watch
	3.08	3.68	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (3.13)	3.55 ↓ (3.62)	3 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

PSV Eindhoven
37.2%

Draw
28.8%

Napoli
34.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.5%

26.3%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

26.2%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

PSV Eindhoven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in PSV Eindhoven's performance.

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Napoli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with PSV Eindhoven that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Napoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.2%	23.3%	46.5%

PSV Eindhoven - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. PSV will win (votes: 12 - 28.6%). Napoli will win (votes: 20 - 47.6%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli: 32.5% – 62.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. PSV (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Napoli (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Kovar M. (G) 6. Flamingo R. 22. Schouten J. (C) 3. Gasiorowski Y. 2. Salah-Eddine A. 34. Saibari I. 17. Mauro Junior 23. Veerman J. 27. Man D. 20. Til G. 5. Perisic I.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 31. Beukema S. 4. Buongiorno A. 37. Spinazzola L. 6. Gilmour B. 21. Politano M. 99. Anguissa F. 11. De Bruyne K. 8. McTominay S. 27. Lucca L.
Substitutes
19. Bajraktarevic E. 21. Boadu M. 8. Dest S. 11. Driouech C. 39. Nagalo A. 4. Obispo A. 1. Olij N. (G) 9. Pepi R. 24. Schiks N. (G) 10. Wanner P.	69. Ambrosino G. 7. David Neres 20. Elmas E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 3. Gutierrez M. 5. Juan Jesus 70. Lang N. 1. Meret A. (G) 17. Olivera M. 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Bosz P.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
28', Gasiorowski Y. 🟨,
30', Veerman J. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, McTominay S. ⚽, Spinazzola L. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Buongiorno A. (Own goal),
38', 2 - 1, Saibari I. ⚽, Til G. (A),
42', Spinazzola L. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Gasiorowski Y. ↓, Obispo A. ↑,
54', 3 - 1, Man D. ⚽, Mauro Junior (A),
58', Beukema S. ↓, Juan Jesus ↑,
58', Spinazzola L. ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,
58', Gilmour B. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
70', Saibari I. 🟨,
73', Politano M. ↓, David Neres ↑,
76', Lucca L. 🟥,
80', 4 - 1, Man D. ⚽, Veerman J. (A),
85', De Bruyne K. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
85', Til G. ↓, Pepi R. ↑,
85', Perisic I. ↓, Driouech C. ↑,
85', Salah-Eddine A. ↓, Dest S. ↑,
86', 4 - 2, McTominay S. ⚽, David Neres (A),
87', 5 - 2, Pepi R. ⚽, Driouech C. (A),
88', Saibari I. ↓, Wanner P. ↑,
89', 6 - 2, Driouech C. ⚽, Pepi R. (A),
90', Driouech C. 🟨,

Preview

PSV is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Napoli has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in PSV: Kuhn W. (Knee Injury) Plea A. (Knee Injury) Sildillia K. (Muscle Injury) van Bommel R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Contini N. (Hand Injury) Hojlund R. (Thigh Injury) Lobotka S. (Muscle Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: McTominay S. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, PSV won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, PSV won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	PSV Eindhoven - Go Ahead Eagles	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Zwolle - PSV Eindhoven	0:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - PSV Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWTWT
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
18.10.25	Torino - Napoli	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Napoli - Genoa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Napoli - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Milan - Napoli	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Napoli - Pisa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
06.12.12	Napoli - PSV Eindhoven	1:3
04.10.12	PSV Eindhoven - Napoli	3:0

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