Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: AEK Arena (Larnaca)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 13
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 16, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 13
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	AEK Larnaca		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.2
	3.05	3.35	2.22
	3.29	3.46	2.27
	1.59	3.89	5.63	Watch
	3.32	3.46	2.16
	3.55	3.5	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↓ (3.47)	3.51 ↑ (3.38)	2.76 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Larnaca
34.1%

Draw
29%

AZ Alkmaar
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

27.6%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

26.5%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Larnaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AEK Larnaca's performance.

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AEK Larnaca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	10%	76.7%

AEK Larnaca - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. AEK Larnaca will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). AZ will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - AZ (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - AEK Larnaca (1.63) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (9 of 12 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK Larnaca (votes: 5 - 31.3%). AZ (votes: 11 - 68.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alomerovic Z. (G) 22. Ekpolo G. 15. Milicevic H. (C) 27. Roberge V. 93. Gnali J. 8. Rohden M. 7. Ledes Gustavo 17. Pons P. 10. Rubio W. 11. Bajic R. 18. Chacon Y.	1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 30. Kasius D. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 21. Kwakman D. 7. Weslley Patati 35. Meerdink M. 27. Daal R.
Substitutes
99. Demetriou D. (G) 37. Gerasimou D. 2. Ioannou P. II. 9. Ivanovic D. 6. Jimmy Suarez 41. Mathias Gonzalez 21. Miramon 29. Naoum G. 51. Paraskevas A. (G) 35. Thoma C.	15. Chavez Garcia M. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 17. Jensen I. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)
Coaches
Idiakez I.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Penetra 🟥,
25', 1 - 0, Rubio W. ⚽, Bajic R. (A),
26', Daal R. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,
28', Milicevic H. 🟨,
33', Goes W. 🟨,
34', Weslley Patati 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
54', 2 - 0, Bajic R. ⚽, Ledes Gustavo (A),
57', Ekpolo G. ↓, Miramon ↑,
64', Mijnans S. ↓, Sin M. ↑,
64', Meerdink M. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,
64', Goes W. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
68', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
72', Rubio W. ↓, Ivanovic D. ↑,
72', Bajic R. ↓, Naoum G. ↑,
72', Kasius D. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,
73', 3 - 0, Ivanovic D. ⚽, Chacon Y. (A),
83', 4 - 0, Rohden M. ⚽,
84', Chacon Y. ↓, Mathias Gonzalez ↑,
84', Pons P. ↓, Gerasimou D. ↑,
90+2', Gerasimou D. 🟨,

Preview

AEK Larnaca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, AZ has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

AEK Larnaca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

AZ will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in AEK Larnaca: Angielski K. (Muscle Injury) Cabrera E. (Injury) Garcia A. (Muscle Injury) Komar K. (Broken Hand) Saborit E. (Red Card)

There will not play in AZ: Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Parrott T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Koopmeiners P. (Injury) Mastoras E. (Injury) Smit K. (Hip Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Larnaca
Cypriot First Division
27.09.25	Krasava Ypsonas - AEK Larnaca	0:4 ✺
22.09.25	AEK Larnaca - Aris Limassol	3:2 ✺
17.09.25	Omonia - AEK Larnaca	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Anorthosis - AEK Larnaca	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	AEK Larnaca - AEL Limassol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLTW
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
28.09.25	NEC Nijmegen - AZ Alkmaar	2:1 ✺
24.09.25	AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	AZ Alkmaar - Feyenoord	3:3 ✺
14.09.25	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LTTWW

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