Match Info

OBOS-ligaen - Round 14

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Color Line Stadion (Ålesund)

Referee: Sletner H. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play


	Aalesunds		Moss

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	5.75
	1.53	4.1	5.25
	1.52	4.35	5.5	Watch
	1.53	4.42	5.83
	1.53	4.22	5.74	Watch
	1.55	3.9	5
	1.51	4.3	6.03	Watch
	1.91	3.65	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.9)	4.14 ↑ (3.6)	5.33 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aalesunds
59.7%

Draw
22.7%

Moss
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

25.5%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

23.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aalesunds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aalesunds's performance.

Moss has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Moss might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aalesunds than the current prediction. (-15.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aalesunds that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moss than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Moss could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Aalesunds - Moss Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Aalesunds (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Aalesunds (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Aalesunds (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aalesunds will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Aalesunds (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grytebust S. (G) 3. Gudmundsson O. 5. Kjelsen A. 25. Kitolano J. 2. Andresen M. 66. Seehusen J. 6. Hammer H. 21. Christensen M. 16. Orsahl J. 17. Myrlid E. 9. Ngongo P. (C)	1. Eriksen M. E. (G) 2. Cassidy M. 3. Strande K. (C) 6. van der Spa A. 23. Barros J. 4. Harrison K. 20. Sorensen K. 17. Andersen P. 8. Vold Krohg H. 11. Jakobsen T. 26. Isufi B.
Substitutes
29. Boe J. 23. Froysa E. 19. Heiselberg F. 11. Johannsson D. 26. Larsen T. (G) 39. Lonebu K. 8. Melland H. 7. Nesso K. 36. Ytterland T.	49. Afonso M. 15. Engesvik A. A. 21. Gronli S. 19. Memedov A. 30. Skott-Grande M. (G) 24. Welinder M.
Coaches
Rekdal K.	Nesselquist O. M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Harrison K. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Christensen M. ⚽, Ngongo P. (A),
30', van der Spa A. 🟨,
38', Seehusen J. ↓, Melland H. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vold Krohg H. ↓, Gronli S. ↑,
50', Cassidy M. 🟨,
64', Andresen M. ↓, Nesso K. ↑,
64', Myrlid E. ↓, Lonebu K. ↑,
70', Sorensen K. ↓, Memedov A. ↑,
77', Isufi B. ↓, Afonso M. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Gudmundsson O. ⚽,
85', Memedov A. 🟨,
90', Christensen M. ↓, Johannsson D. ↑,
90', Ngongo P. ↓, Heiselberg F. ↑,
90+5', Johannsson D. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ OBOS~ligaen (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 12).

Recent performances by Aalesunds have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Moss's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aalesunds may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Aalesunds is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Aalesunds won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Aalesunds won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aalesunds FK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
22.07.25	Egersund - Aalesunds	2:2 ✺
28.06.25	Skeid - Aalesunds	1:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
25.06.25	Aalesunds - Viking Stavanger	0:1 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
21.06.25	Aalesunds - Odd	1:0 ✺
18.06.25	Kongsvinger - Aalesunds	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLWL
- Moss FK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
28.06.25	Moss - Egersund	2:4 ✺
21.06.25	Åsane - Moss	2:1 ✺
18.06.25	Moss - Hødd	3:1 ✺
15.06.25	Mjøndalen - Moss	2:2 ✺
31.05.25	Moss - Start	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
10.08.24	Aalesunds - Moss	1:0
01.06.24	Moss - Aalesunds	1:0

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