The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Aarau 52.9%
Draw 23.8%
Étoile Carouge 23.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
54.6%
22.7%
22.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55.6%
22.3%
22.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aarau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)
Étoile Carouge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (+2.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
Aarau - Étoile Carouge Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
30. Hirzel A. (G) 2. Thaler M. (C) 5. Acquah D. 3. Guzzo R. 29. Dickenmann M. 6. Aliu I. 31. Petit-Viretti V. 42. Senyurt B. 11. Koide H. 18. Afriyie D. 7. Guindo M.
23. Huwiler L. (G) 25. Felder V. (C) 4. Strohbach I. 24. Dubosson M. 3. Hoxha F. 8. Ricardo Alves 21. Holcbecher M. 77. Escorza T. 26. Bossiwa S. 76. Itaitinga 88. Essiena L.
Substitutes
24. Arkovic T. 80. Beka Beka A. 16. Bizzarri A. 28. Coric D. 38. Frei M. (G) 23. Jordan E. 15. Muller S. 20. Ndau K. 27. Obexer L.
7. Correia O. 1. Diallo M. (G) 6. El Jaouhari M. 2. Neves D. 11. Nunez T. 59. Renovales O. 17. Sene O. 99. Tsoungui M. 22. Zrankeon G.
Coaches
Iacopetta B.
Nogueira P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Koide H. ⚽, Senyurt B. (A),
26', Essiena L. 🟨,
31', Senyurt B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Senyurt B. ↓, Obexer L. ↑,
46', Escorza T. ↓, Correia O. ↑,
54', Koide H. ↓, Beka Beka A. ↑,
62', Aliu I. 🟨,
65', 1 - 1, Holcbecher M. ⚽,
68', Ricardo Alves 🟨,
75', Aliu I. ↓, Ndau K. ↑,
80', Holcbecher M. ↓, El Jaouhari M. ↑,
80', Bossiwa S. ↓, Nunez T. ↑,
82', 1 - 2, Correia O. ⚽, Ricardo Alves (A),
85', Guindo M. ↓, Jordan E. ↑,
85', Dickenmann M. ↓, Bizzarri A. ↑,
90', Ricardo Alves ↓, Zrankeon G. ↑,
Preview
A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 6th and 9th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aarau won 3.
Recent results have been tough for Aarau (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Étoile is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Aarau may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Aarau carries the favorite tag into this contest.
Confirmed absences for Aarau: Baturina R.
(Muscle Injury)
Tairi Z.
(Inactive).
Confirmed absences for Étoile: Cespedes B.
(Inactive)
Januario E.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Aarau: Furrer G.
(Inactive)
van der Werff J.
(Ankle Injury).
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Aarau has recorded 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:14 (averaging 1.6:1.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Aarau against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 6:7 goals (averaging 1.2:1.4 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
6
Aarau
11
3
3
5
16:20
-4
12
7
Etoile-Carouge
11
3
3
5
10:15
-5
12
Last Results with these Odds
Aarau - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 54.55%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.
Switzerland
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Hirzel A. (G) 
Acquah D. 
Petit-Viretti V. 
Guindo M. 
Hoxha F. 
Itaitinga 
Arkovic T. 
Bizzarri A. 
Ndau K. 
Diallo M. (G) 
Neves D. 
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