Match Info

Scottish Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Pittodrie Stadium (Aberdeen)

Where to Watch on TV:


Nigeria	Red TV
Scotland	BBC Scotland
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC One, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport


	Aberdeen		Raith Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.9	5.5
	1.55	4.05	5.3
	1.21	5.22	16.62	Watch
	1.53	3.8	5.5
	1.51	4.1	5.99
	1.54	4	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.45)	4.18 ↑ (4.05)	7.44 ↑ (6.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aberdeen
64.4%

Draw
22.8%

Raith Rovers
12.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

22.5%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.7%

22.5%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberdeen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Raith Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aberdeen than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raith Rovers than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Aberdeen - Raith Rovers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mitov D. (G) 2. Devlin N. (C) 8. Polvara D. 22. Milne J. 77. Gyamfi E. 25. Cameron L. 10. Clarkson L. 81. Keskinen T. 16. Armstrong S. 11. Milanovic N. 15. Nisbet K.	1. Rae J. (G) 2. Rowe J. 6. O'Connor D. 4. Hanlon P. 3. Wilson E. 20. Brown S. (C) 22. Doherty J. 14. Mullin J. 23. Easton D. 19. Winter A. 9. Hamilton J.
Substitutes
7. Aouchiche A. 14. Bilalovic K. 46. Frame M. 17. Karlsson J. 27. Lazetic M. 38. Lobban D. 6. Nilsen S. 4. Shinnie G. 41. Vitols R. (G)	17. Gibson L. 24. Glavin A. (G) 27. Hannah C. 8. Matthews R. 18. McMullan P. 25. Montagu K. 29. Nsio P. 30. Raeside L. 10. Vaughan L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Milne J. ⚽, Polvara D. (A),
27', Gyamfi E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gyamfi E. ↓, Frame M. ↑,
47', Polvara D. 🟨,
57', Armstrong S. ↓, Shinnie G. ↑,
62', Milanovic N. ↓, Karlsson J. ↑,
69', Easton D. ↓, Montagu K. ↑,
69', Winter A. ↓, McMullan P. ↑,
73', Rowe J. ↓, Matthews R. ↑,
75', Clarkson L. ↓, Aouchiche A. ↑,
79', Brown S. 🟨,
81', Mullin J. ↓, Nsio P. ↑,
81', Hamilton J. ↓, Vaughan L. ↑,
84', Cameron L. ↓, Nilsen S. ↑,

Preview

Aberdeen is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Raith has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aberdeen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Aberdeen is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aberdeen won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Aberdeen won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Outrights of Scottish Cup for now

Aberdeen: 4.6% Raith: 0.78%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberdeen FC
Scottish Premier League
11.01.26	Aberdeen - Glasgow Rangers	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Glasgow Rangers - Aberdeen	2:0 ✺
03.01.26	Falkirk - Aberdeen	1:0 ✺
30.12.25	Hibernian - Aberdeen	2:0 ✺
27.12.25	Aberdeen - Dundee United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT
- Raith Rovers
Scottish Football Championship
10.01.26	Raith Rovers - Arbroath	2:3 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
06.01.26	Raith Rovers - Queen of the South	1:0 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
03.01.26	Airdrieonians - Raith Rovers	0:0 ✺
27.12.25	Raith Rovers - Dunfermline Athletic	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Partick Thistle - Raith Rovers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League Cup
24.07.22	Aberdeen - Raith Rovers	3:0
15.08.21	Raith Rovers - Aberdeen	2:1
Club Friendly
12.07.15	Raith Rovers - Aberdeen	0:2

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