Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Albert Bartlett Stadium (Airdrie)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC Alba, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport


	Airdrieonians		Raith Rovers

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.45	Watch
	2.35	3	2.7
	2.52	3.15	2.62	Watch
	2.66	3.2	2.52
	24.22	4.13	1.26	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.4
	2.54	3.53	2.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.61 ↑ (2.84)	3.36 ↑ (3.21)	2.36 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Airdrieonians
19.8%

Draw
33.1%

Raith Rovers
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

28.1%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

27.8%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Airdrieonians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Airdrieonians's form might have worsened.

Raith Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Raith Rovers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Airdrieonians than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Airdrieonians, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raith Rovers than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Raith Rovers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Airdrieonians - Raith Rovers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Raith (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Raith (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Stone H. (G) 14. Devine A. 16. Ross C. 4. McGinty S. 3. Strapp L. (C) 24. McKinnon C. 11. Henderson E. 8. Gallagher G. 23. Telfer Ch. 42. Stirton O. 7. Mochrie C. R.	1. Rae J. (G) 22. Doherty J. 6. O'Connor D. 4. Hanlon P. 26. Stevenson L. 29. Nsio P. 20. Brown S. (C) 19. Winter A. 10. Vaughan L. 23. Easton D. 9. Hamilton J.
Substitutes
26. Armstrong R. 18. Barjonas J. 25. Constable S. 33. Hastie J. 2. MacDonald D. 12. McArthur C. 17. McGrattan L. 6. McMaster D. 20. Melrose C. (G)	11. Cameron I. 7. Chin R. 5. Fordyce C. 17. Gibson L. 24. Glavin A. (G) 8. Matthews R. 14. Mullin J. 2. Rowe J. 3. Wilson E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Ross C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Hamilton J. ↓, Cameron I. ↑,
52', McGinty S. 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Easton D. ⚽, Cameron I. (A),
63', Devine A. ↓, McGrattan L. ↑,
63', Gallagher G. ↓, MacDonald D. ↑,
72', Nsio P. 🟨,
74', Stevenson L. 🟨,
74', Henderson E. ↓, Hastie J. ↑,
74', McKinnon C. ↓, Constable S. ↑,
74', Telfer Ch. ↓, McMaster D. ↑,
79', Winter A. ↓, Mullin J. ↑,
79', Easton D. ↓, Matthews R. ↑,
85', Vaughan L. 🟨,
85', Vaughan L. ↓, Chin R. ↑,
85', Doherty J. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Hastie J. ⚽, Constable S. (A),
Penalties (3 - 5)
1, Mullin J. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Stirton O. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Hanlon P. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Mochrie C. R. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Matthews R. (Penalty Awarded),
3, McGrattan L. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Rowe J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Hastie J. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Cameron I. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Airdrieonians won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Airdrieonians won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:17. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Airdrieonians won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Airdrieonians ✔	5	4	0	1	18:6	12	12

Last Results with these Odds

Airdrieonians - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 31.86%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Raith Rovers - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Airdrieonians FC
Scottish Football Championship
21.02.26	Partick Thistle - Airdrieonians	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Airdrieonians - St. Johnstone	0:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
06.02.26	Airdrieonians - St. Mirren	1:2 ET ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
03.02.26	Arbroath - Airdrieonians	2:3 penalties ✺
Scottish Football Championship
31.01.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Airdrieonians	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LLLWW
- Raith Rovers
Scottish Football Championship
20.02.26	Raith Rovers - St. Johnstone	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	Greenock Morton - Raith Rovers	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Ayr United - Raith Rovers	2:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
27.01.26	Queens Park - Raith Rovers	1:2 penalties ✺
Scottish Football Championship
24.01.26	Raith Rovers - Queens Park	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
03.01.26	Airdrieonians - Raith Rovers	0:0
15.11.25	Raith Rovers - Airdrieonians	0:3
20.09.25	Airdrieonians - Raith Rovers	0:0
12.04.25	Raith Rovers - Airdrieonians	1:1
25.02.25	Airdrieonians - Raith Rovers	1:0
29.10.24	Raith Rovers - Airdrieonians	1:0
03.08.24	Airdrieonians - Raith Rovers	1:0

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