Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Round 8

Date: 20 September 2024, Friday

Location: Park Avenue (Aberystwyth)

Referee: Jones A. (Wal)


	Aberystwyth Town		Haverfordwest County

	1	X	2
	6.75	4.1	1.38
	8	4.33	1.38
	6.6	4.3	1.4
	7.94	4.26	1.42	Watch
	8	4.2	1.35
	8.25	4.4	1.37
	7.2	4.1	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.53 ↑ (3.32)	4.24 ↑ (3.42)	1.39 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aberystwyth Town
12.2%

Draw
21.7%

Haverfordwest County
66.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

27.1%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

26.6%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberystwyth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aberystwyth Town's form might have worsened.

Haverfordwest County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Haverfordwest County's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+16.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aberystwyth Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Haverfordwest County than the current prediction. (-21.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Haverfordwest County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aberystwyth Town - Haverfordwest County Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jones D. (G) 23. Arnison H. 20. Aziamale C. 4. Bradford L. 28. Darlington A. 14. Davies S. 5. Ealing F. 7. Evans J. 9. Flint N. 11. Hartley Z. 8. Lewis I.	1. Jones Z. (G) 28. Ahmun B. 6. Jenkins L. 15. Jones A. 20. Jones O. 19. Kenniford K. 17. McCarthy K. 23. Owen J. 8. Shephard C. 25. Tabone L. 7. Watts R.
Substitutes
22. Dafis G. 17. Huxley C. 12. Mason T. 21. Osment S. (G) 27. Patterson R. 19. Torry D.	9. Fawcett B. 24. Humphreys I. 21. John D. 14. John H. 12. Knott I. (G) 27. Picton F. 5. Rees D.
Coaches
Williams A.	Pennock T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Ealing F. 🟨,
23', Evans J. ↓, Patterson R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
52', 0 - 1, Watts R. ⚽,
58', 0 - 2, Ahmun B. ⚽,
63', Darlington A. ↓, Torry D. ↑,
64', Jones A. ↓, Humphreys I. ↑,
64', Owen J. ↓, John H. ↑,
64', Jones O. ↓, Fawcett B. ↑,
70', 0 - 3, Bradford L. (Own goal),
71', Ahmun B. ↓, John D. ↑,
78', Kenniford K. ↓, Rees D. ↑,
80', Davies S. ↓, Huxley C. ↑,
90+5', Arnison H. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 1.

The competitors look crappy now.

In this match Haverfordwest is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 24-29.

Including matches at home between the teams Aberystwyth won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18-16.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh League Cup
17.09.24	Aberystwyth Town - Llandudno	3:2 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.09.24	Bala Town - Aberystwyth Town	3:0 ✺
07.09.24	Aberystwyth Town - Flint Town United	0:2 ✺
03.09.24	The New Saints - Aberystwyth Town	2:0 ✺
26.08.24	Pen-y-Bont - Aberystwyth Town	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLLLL
- Haverfordwest County
Welsh League Cup
17.09.24	Pen-y-Bont - Haverfordwest County	1:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
14.09.24	Flint Town United - Haverfordwest County	1:0 ✺
07.09.24	Haverfordwest County - The New Saints	0:1 ✺
30.08.24	Haverfordwest County - Newtown	3:0 ✺
26.08.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Haverfordwest County	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
15.03.24	Haverfordwest County - Aberystwyth Town	2:0
02.02.24	Aberystwyth Town - Haverfordwest County	1:0
30.12.23	Aberystwyth Town - Haverfordwest County	1:1
30.09.23	Haverfordwest County - Aberystwyth Town	3:0
15.04.23	Haverfordwest County - Aberystwyth Town	1:1
11.03.23	Aberystwyth Town - Haverfordwest County	0:1
23.12.22	Haverfordwest County - Aberystwyth Town	3:1

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