Match Info

Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 30

Date: 28 March 2025, Friday

Location: Park Avenue (Aberystwyth)

Referee: Markham-Jones B. (Wal)


	Aberystwyth Town		Flint Town United

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	1.93
	5.4	4.3	1.52
	5.51	4.27	1.54	Watch
	4.2	3.75	1.75
	5.43	4.25	1.51
	5.4	4.3	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.86 ↑ (3.29)	4.05 ↑ (3.78)	1.63 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aberystwyth Town
19.3%

Draw
23.2%

Flint Town United
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

24.5%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

23.5%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberystwyth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aberystwyth Town's form might have worsened.

Flint Town United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Flint Town United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aberystwyth Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flint Town United than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Flint Town United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aberystwyth Town - Flint Town United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jones D. (G) 28. Darlington A. 16. Davies B. 7. Evans J. 9. Flint N. 11. Hartley Z. 17. Huxley C. 8. Lewis I. 10. Owen J. 23. Sharif A. 6. Thorn J.	1. Flint J. (G) 33. Collins B. 24. Fofana S. 11. Jones J. 15. Lambert I. 18. Lee I. 5. Owen H. 7. Phillips J. 9. Reeves E. 20. Simmonds O. 10. Wynne B.
Substitutes
14. Davies S. 26. Diboe C. 15. Duggan I. 22. Mason T. 21. Osment S. (G)	3. Burke M. 2. Hart C. 14. Maire G. 4. Mariette L. 16. Morrison L. 54. Sumner L. 13. Szczepaniak D. (G)
Coaches
Corbisiero A.	Fowler L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Wynne B. ⚽,
42', Simmonds O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Fofana S. 🟨,
62', Fofana S. ↓, Burke M. ↑,
62', Simmonds O. ↓, Mariette L. ↑,
65', 0 - 2, Reeves E. ⚽,
70', Evans J. ↓, Mason T. ↑,
70', Huxley C. ↓, Diboe C. ↑,
71', Wynne B. ↓, Maire G. ↑,
84', Lee I. ↓, Morrison L. ↑,
84', Jones J. ↓, Sumner L. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Flint N. (Pen),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 1.

Aberystwyth has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Flint Town is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Flint Town is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Flint Town to win the game is with odds 1.69.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 8:22 (average 0.6:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Aberystwyth won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
21.03.25	Aberystwyth Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1 ✺
11.03.25	Barry Town United - Aberystwyth Town	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Aberystwyth Town	3:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
28.02.25	Aberystwyth Town - The New Saints	0:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
22.02.25	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Flint Town United
Welsh Cymru Premier
22.03.25	Flint Town United - Barry Town United	3:2 ✺
11.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Flint Town United	4:0 ✺
07.03.25	Newtown - Flint Town United	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Flint Town United - Briton Ferry Llansawel	3:1 ✺
07.02.25	Flint Town United - Aberystwyth Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
07.02.25	Flint Town United - Aberystwyth Town	2:0
04.12.24	Flint Town United - Aberystwyth Town	3:0
07.09.24	Aberystwyth Town - Flint Town United	0:2
25.03.23	Aberystwyth Town - Flint Town United	1:0
11.02.23	Flint Town United - Aberystwyth Town	5:0
06.01.23	Flint Town United - Aberystwyth Town	1:1
28.10.22	Aberystwyth Town - Flint Town United	2:1

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