Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Round 4

Date: 26 August 2024, Monday

Location: Bryntirion Park (Bridgend)

Referee: Wright R. (Wal)


	Pen-y-Bont		Aberystwyth Town

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	6.5
	1.37	4.8	7.91
	1.4	4.6	7.51	Watch
	1.33	4.6	7.5
	1.36	4.7	7.65
	1.36	4.75	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.51)	4.63 ↑ (4.1)	7.43 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pen-y-Bont
67.4%

Draw
20.1%

Aberystwyth Town
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

22.5%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

22.5%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pen-y-Bont has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pen-y-Bont's performance.

Aberystwyth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pen-y-Bont that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+4%)

Pen y Bont - Aberystwyth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Przybek A. (G) 16. Borge B. 10. Crole J. 6. Davies M. 8. Harling L. 5. Jefferies D. 4. Kircough G. 2. Ludvigsen K. 3. Owen K. 18. Pritchard O. 22. Reffell K.	1. Jones D. (G) 23. Arnison H. 4. Bradford L. 28. Darlington A. 3. Davies R. 5. Ealing F. 7. Evans J. 9. Flint N. 8. Lewis I. 10. Owen J. 2. Walsh L.
Substitutes
21. Bregua E. 29. Green C. 12. Lewis M. (G) 14. Phillips I. 9. Venables C. 11. Ware L. 15. Woodiwiss J.	22. Dafis G. 14. Davies S. 11. Hartley Z. 17. Huxley C. 12. Mason T. 21. Osment S. (G) 19. Torry D.
Coaches
Griffiths R.	Williams A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Davies M. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Torry D. ⚽,
33', 🟨,
42', 2 - 1, Borge B. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
58', Jefferies D. ↓, Woodiwiss J. ↑,
61', 3 - 1, Pritchard O. ⚽,
63', Crole J. ↓, Venables C. ↑,
63', Kircough G. ↓, Green C. ↑,
68', Torry D. ↓, Huxley C. ↑,
70', Flint N. ↓, Dafis G. ↑,
75', Pritchard O. ↓, Bregua E. ↑,
75', Owen K. ↓, Ware L. ↑,
79', Davies S. ↓, Mason T. ↑,
79', Darlington A. ↓, Hartley Z. ↑,
81', 🟨,
83', 4 - 1, Walsh L. (Own goal),
87', 5 - 1, Venables C. ⚽,

Preview

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pen-y-Bont won 3.

Recent matches Pen-y-Bont is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aberystwyth is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Pen-y-Bont have a series of guest games.

In this match Pen-y-Bont is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Pen-y-Bont won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 24-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Pen-y-Bont won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
23.08.24	Haverfordwest County - Pen-y-Bont	0:0 ✺
16.08.24	Pen-y-Bont - Newtown	0:0 ✺
11.08.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:2 ✺
Welsh League Cup
03.08.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.24	Cardiff City - Pen-y-Bont	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTWWL
- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
23.08.24	Aberystwyth Town - Barry Town United	1:0 ✺
16.08.24	Aberystwyth Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:1 ✺
09.08.24	Newtown - Aberystwyth Town	4:1 ✺
Welsh League Cup
03.08.24	Colwyn Bay - Aberystwyth Town	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.24	Aberystwyth Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
06.04.24	Aberystwyth Town - Pen-y-Bont	0:3
23.02.24	Pen-y-Bont - Aberystwyth Town	1:1
27.10.23	Pen-y-Bont - Aberystwyth Town	0:2
22.09.23	Aberystwyth Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:2
10.01.23	Aberystwyth Town - Pen-y-Bont	0:3
23.09.22	Pen-y-Bont - Aberystwyth Town	3:1
21.01.22	Pen-y-Bont - Aberystwyth Town	4:0

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