Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Colombia	ESPN 5
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5


	Academia Puerto Cabello		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	4.33	3	1.95	Watch
	3.95	3.2	1.92	Watch
	4.52	3	2.03
	4.74	3.08	1.93	Watch
	4.2	2.9	1.95	Watch
	4.76	3.14	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.42 ↓ (4.63)	3.05 ↓ (3.23)	1.96 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Academia Puerto Cabello
21.3%

Draw
30.8%

Atlético Mineiro
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.4%

29.3%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

29.6%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Academia Puerto Cabello has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Academia Puerto Cabello than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	10%	60%

Academia Puerto Cabello - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Puerto Cabello will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Puerto Cabello (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Puerto Cabello (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Graterol J. (C) 29. Vargas J. 26. Ramos J. 63. Obradovic S. 16. Rosales R. 47. Bamba G. 8. Moreno J. 70. Flores Barrios R. D. 5. Gonzalez G. 19. Castillo J. 9. Ponce A.	22. Everson (G) 23. Preciado A. 13. Lyanco (C) 14. Vitor Hugo 6. Alonso J. 17. Igor Gomes 39. Cisse M. 11. Bernard 10. Gustavo Scarpa 92. Dudu 9. Cassierra M.
Substitutes
7. Barros J. 14. Bortagaray G. 30. Casiani L. 24. Contreras H. 31. Hernandez J. 6. Lima P. 20. Marchan J. 17. Martinez J. 44. Melendez G. 11. Pernia E. 33. Rodriguez D. 55. Romero L. (G)	5. Alexsander 29. Caua 28. Cuello 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 8. Maycon 2. Natanael 36. Pascini K. 25. Perez T. 19. Reinier 31. Robert (G) 3. Roman I. 40. Vitao
Coaches
Sarago E.	Dominguez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Castillo J. ⚽, Flores Barrios R. D. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Dudu ⚽,
34', Alonso J. 🟨,
39', 2 - 1, Ramos J. ⚽, Rosales R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bernard ↓, Reinier ↑,
46', Cassierra M. ↓, Caua ↑,
46', Igor Gomes ↓, Maycon ↑,
65', Alonso J. ↓, Pascini K. ↑,
72', Rosales R. ↓, Bortagaray G. ↑,
72', Moreno J. ↓, Lima P. ↑,
77', Cisse M. ↓, Alexsander ↑,
80', Ponce A. ↓, Casiani L. ↑,
80', Castillo J. ↓, Melendez G. ↑,
90+1', Flores Barrios R. D. ↓, Barros J. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Puerto Cabello may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlético MG is the team to beat.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Atletico-MG: 34.91%

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 50.3%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Academia Puerto Cabello
Venezuelan Primera Division
04.04.26	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo Táchira	1:2 ✺
23.03.26	Carabobo - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:1 ✺
17.03.26	Academia Puerto Cabello - Universidad Central	3:0 ✺
13.03.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Academia Anzoátegui - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LTWTW
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Chapecoense - Atlético Mineiro	0:4 ✺
21.03.26	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
18.03.26	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWLWL

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