Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 10

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	Win play, Win Sports
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Atlético Mineiro		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.4	4.6	Watch
	1.88	3.25	4.25	Watch
	1.9	3.45	4.7
	1.86	3.45	4.57	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4
	1.91	3.42	4.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.92)	3.37 ↓ (3.41)	4.42 ↑ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
50.6%

Draw
28%

Athletico Paranaense
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

27.9%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

29.1%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 2. Natanael 4. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 16. Lodi R. 30. Victor Hugo 25. Perez T. 21. Franco A. 28. Cuello 7. Hulk (C) 19. Reinier	23. Santos (C) 4. Arthur Dias 33. Aguirre F. 37. Esquivel L. 29. Benavidez G. 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo 6. Leo Derik 53. Dudu Kogitzki 7. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
5. Alexsander 11. Bernard 9. Cassierra M. 39. Cisse M. 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 10. Gustavo Scarpa 17. Igor Gomes 13. Lyanco 36. Pascini K. 23. Preciado A. 3. Roman I.	48. Bruninho 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 11. Isaac 8. Joao Cruz 20. Julimar 3. Leo 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Victor Hugo ⚽,
19', Aguirre F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mendoza S. ↓, Julimar ↑,
46', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
46', Jadson ↓, Portilla J. ↑,
69', Cuello ↓, Dudu ↑,
70', Perez T. ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
70', Reinier ↓, Bernard ↑,
75', Leo Derik ↓, Leozinho ↑,
77', Victor Hugo ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
80', 2 - 0, Gustavo Scarpa ⚽, Natanael (A),
86', Hulk ↓, Cassierra M. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Julimar ⚽, Joao Cruz (A),
88', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Bruninho ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Atlético MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atlético MG is the team to beat.

There will not play in Atlético MG: Maycon (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético MG: Cisse M. (Leg Injury) Minda A. (Inactive) Preciado A. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:17. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 49.47%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
02.04.26	Chapecoense - Atlético Mineiro	0:4 ✺
21.03.26	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
18.03.26	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Atlético Mineiro - Internacional RS	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWLW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
01.04.26	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	3:0 ✺
29.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	4:1 ✺
22.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
08.12.24	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
16.11.24	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	1:0
02.09.23	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
Copa Libertadores
23.05.23	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
29.04.23	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:1
Copa Libertadores
18.04.23	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
07.08.22	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:3

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