Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 7

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol


	Atlético Mineiro		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.4	Watch
	2.37	3.1	3.2
	2.32	2.98	3.25
	2.38	3.11	3.49
	2.39	3.09	3.27	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.2
	2.49	3.06	3.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.1)	3.03 ↓ (3.38)	3.3 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
40.1%

Draw
31.2%

São Paulo
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.1%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

28.3%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Mineiro's form might have worsened.

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 23. Preciado A. 3. Roman I. 6. Alonso J. 16. Lodi R. 25. Perez T. 21. Franco A. 30. Victor Hugo 7. Hulk (C) 9. Cassierra M. 28. Cuello	23. Rafael (G) 42. Maik 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 16. Bobadilla D. 94. Danielzinho 8. Marcos Antonio 80. Cauly 9. Jonathan Calleri (C) 17. Andre Silva
Substitutes
11. Bernard 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 10. Gustavo Scarpa 17. Igor Gomes 13. Lyanco 27. Minda A. 2. Natanael 36. Pascini K. 20. Patrick Silva 19. Reinier 40. Vitao	31. Carlos Coronel (G) 11. Ferreira 33. Luan Silva 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano 4. Matheus Doria 29. Pablo Maia 5. Robert Arboleda 21. Soares C. 14. Tapia G. 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Roger Machado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Andre Silva ↓, Luciano ↑,
61', Cauly ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
64', Perez T. ↓, Bernard ↑,
64', 1 - 0, Roman I. ⚽, Franco A. (A),
71', Roman I. 🟨,
74', Lucas Moura ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
75', Cassierra M. ↓, Dudu ↑,
83', Maik ↓, Soares C. ↑,
83', Danielzinho ↓, Ferreira ↑,
87', Cuello ↓, Lyanco ↑,
90+4', Diaz E. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1.

Atlético MG has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

São Paulo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Atlético MG: Alexsander (Knee Injury) Cisse M. (Leg Injury) Maycon (Calf Injury) Ruan Tressoldi (Yellow Cards) Vitor Hugo (Inactive)

There will not play in São Paulo: Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucca Marques (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 1.1:0.3).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Atletico-MG: 0.31% Sao Paulo: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44
11	Sao Paulo	29	10	6	13	33:34	-1	36

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 45.29%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
14.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Atlético Mineiro - Internacional RS	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
08.03.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLWL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
15.03.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
12.03.26	São Paulo - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.03.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Coritiba - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
24.08.25	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	2:0
06.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	0:0
23.11.24	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	2:2
Copa do Brasil
12.09.24	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	0:0
28.08.24	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
11.07.24	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	2:1
02.12.23	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	2:1

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