Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 5

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 1
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
World	Onefootball


	Vasco da Gama		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.98	3.2	2.38
	3.12	3.33	2.47
	3.11	3.08	2.40	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.38
	3.07	3.29	2.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (3.01)	3.21 ↓ (3.34)	2.39 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
31%

Draw
29.5%

Palmeiras
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

27.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

26.6%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Vasco da Gama have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	27.3%	72.7%

Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Palmeiras (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Palmeiras (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Palmeiras will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 25. Hugo Moura 3. Tche Tche 17. Moreira N. 7. David 11. Andres Gomez	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 12. Khellven 15. Gomez G. (C) 3. Bruno Fuchs 6. Jefte 17. Marlon Freitas 8. Andreas Pereira 11. Arias J. 19. Sosa R. 7. Felipe Anderson 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
28. Adson 20. Brenner 88. Cauan Barros 66. Cuiabano 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 18. Hinestroza M. 98. JP 43. Lucas Freitas 9. Matheus Franca 2. Rodriguez J. 10. Rojas J. 77. Spinelli C.	40. Allan Elias 24. Aranha (G) 56. Arthur Gabriel 4. Giay A. 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 22. Piquerez J.
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Marlon Freitas (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lucas Piton ↓, Cuiabano ↑,
52', Tche Tche 🟨,
57', Tche Tche ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
57', Moreira N. ↓, Adson ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Thiago Mendes ⚽, David (A),
69', Lopez J. ↓, Luighi ↑,
69', David ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
69', Felipe Anderson ↓, Allan Elias ↑,
72', Luighi 🟨,
72', Sosa R. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
72', Khellven ↓, Giay A. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Cuiabano ⚽, Paulo Henrique (A),
78', Hugo Moura ↓, Cauan Barros ↑,
85', Thiago Mendes 🟨,
90+4', Allan Elias 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 0.

Vasco has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Palmeiras is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Vasco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Vasco: Jair (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo (Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 13:28. (average 0.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 0.9:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.02.26	Santos - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Volta Redonda	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLLWL
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Palmeiras - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Palmeiras - Capivariano	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.10.25	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	3:0
04.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	0:1
22.09.24	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	0:1
13.06.24	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	2:0
27.08.23	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	1:0
23.04.23	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	2:2
26.01.21	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	1:1

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