Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Portugal	Canal 11


	Cruzeiro		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.4	4.1	Watch
	1.92	3.35	3.95
	1.97	3.46	4.29
	1.26	4.97	14.56	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.8
	1.96	3.5	4.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.63)	3.66 ↑ (3.6)	5.79 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
55.3%

Draw
27.4%

Vasco da Gama
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

25.6%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

24.4%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Matheus Cunha (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 8. Matheus Henrique 16. Lucas Silva (C) 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira 11. Gerson 91. Chico	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 25. Hugo Moura (C) 17. Moreira N. 3. Tche Tche 88. Cauan Barros 11. Andres Gomez 7. David
Substitutes
99. Arroyo K. 23. Fagner 77. Japa 43. Joao Marcelo 34. Jonathan Jesus 2. Kaua Moraes 70. Kenji 81. Otavio Costa (G) 22. Villarreal N. 5. Walace 94. Wanderson 56. William	28. Adson 20. Brenner 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 18. Hinestroza M. 98. JP 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 9. Matheus Franca 2. Rodriguez J. 10. Rojas J. 77. Spinelli C. 64. Walace Fernandes
Coaches
Tite	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Christian ⚽, Kaiki (A),
45+4', Andres Gomez 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
52', 1 - 1, Cauan Barros ⚽, Cuiabano (A),
54', 1 - 2, Cauan Barros ⚽,
54', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
59', Cauan Barros 🟥,
60', Christian ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
61', Lucas Silva ↓, Villarreal N. ↑,
61', David ↓, Lucas Piton ↑,
62', Moreira N. ↓, Brenner ↑,
62', Andres Gomez ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Villarreal N. ⚽, Chico (A),
83', Hugo Moura ↓, JP ↑,
86', 2 - 3, Brenner ⚽, Rodriguez J. (A),
88', Tche Tche ↓, Lucas Freitas ↑,
88', Villalba L. ↓, Wanderson ↑,
90', Brenner 🟨,
90+1', William Furtado ↓, Kaua Moraes ↑,
90+1', Matheus Henrique ↓, Japa ↑,
90+4', 3 - 3, Japa ⚽, Kaua Moraes (A),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 1.

Cruzeiro is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vasco has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cruzeiro is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Bruno Rodrigues (Inactive) Kaio Jorge (Inactive) Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Romero L. (Inactive) Sinisterra L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Vasco: Jair (Knee Injury) Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury) Thiago Mendes (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Cassio (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35

Last Results with these Odds

Cruzeiro - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 56.47%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
11.03.26	Flamengo - Cruzeiro	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
08.03.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Cruzeiro - Pouso Alegre	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
21.02.26	Pouso Alegre - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWTW
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
12.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.02.26	Santos - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Volta Redonda	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro	2:0
27.04.25	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:0
29.09.24	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:1
16.06.24	Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro	0:0
22.11.23	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	2:2
08.07.23	Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
21.09.22	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	3:0

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