Match Info

A-League - Round 25

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Coopers Stadium (Adelaide)

Referee: Kersey A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV 2 Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV 2, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV 2
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 5
Philippines	SPOTV 2
Singapore	SPOTV 2
Thailand	SPOTV 2
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 5
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV 2


	Adelaide United		Macarthur FC

	1	X	2
	1.71	4.5	3.75	Watch
	2.2	3.8	2.8
	1.72	4.25	3.95	Watch
	1.77	4.53	4.11
	1.89	4.36	3.45	Watch
	1.73	4	3.75
	1.8	4.48	3.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.28)	4.27 ↑ (3.87)	3.67 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide United
51.9%

Draw
22.2%

Macarthur FC
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

24.4%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

24.3%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Adelaide United's performance.

Macarthur FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Macarthur FC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Adelaide United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Macarthur FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Adelaide United - Macarthur FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Adelaide will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Macarthur will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Smits J. (G) 14. Barnett J. 3. Vriends B. (C) 4. Kikianis P. 7. Kitto R. 55. Alagich E. 19. Dukuly Y. 10. Muniz J. 44. White R. 12. Yull J. 9. Jovanovic L.	1. Robinson A. (G) 25. Talbot C. 3. Da Silva D. (C) 6. Uskok T. 32. McKay W. 10. Caceres A. 22. Rose L. 8. Vickery L. 24. Bosnjak D. 9. Ikonomidis C. 15. Duke M.
Substitutes
87. Anselmo 42. Ayoubi A. 35. Burkitt B. 23. Duzel L. 52. Phillis S. 99. Riak A. 13. Vartuli M. (G)	27. Damevski J. 12. Kurto F. (G) 11. Oliveira B. 35. Oliveira H. 17. Randazzo O. 28. Sawyer H. 18. Scott W.
Coaches
Andrioli A.	Sterjovski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Duke M. ⚽, Talbot C. (A),
14', Ikonomidis C. ↓, Randazzo O. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Kitto R. ↓, Burkitt B. ↑,
46', Jovanovic L. ↓, Anselmo ↑,
47', Bosnjak D. 🟨,
62', White R. ↓, Riak A. ↑,
62', Duke M. 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Anselmo ⚽, Barnett J. (A),
66', Bosnjak D. ↓, Oliveira B. ↑,
66', Vickery L. ↓, Oliveira H. ↑,
70', Duke M. ↓, Sawyer H. ↑,
71', Talbot C. ↓, Scott W. ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Kikianis P. ⚽,
78', Muniz J. ↓, Duzel L. ↑,
83', Caceres A. 🟨,
86', Riak A. ↓, Ayoubi A. ↑,
89', 3 - 1, Anselmo ⚽, Dukuly Y. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Macarthur may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Adelaide might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:27. (average 1.5:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.7:1.4).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Macarthur FC: 8.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Adelaide United - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 41.55%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide United
Australian A-League
11.04.26	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Adelaide United - Auckland FC	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Adelaide United	2:4 ✺
14.03.26	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
06.03.26	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TTWTT
- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
12.04.26	Perth Glory - Macarthur FC	3:1 ✺
02.04.26	Macarthur FC - Newcastle Jets	3:2 ✺
20.03.26	Auckland FC - Macarthur FC	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	4:1 ✺
04.03.26	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
30.01.26	Adelaide United - Macarthur FC	1:1
27.10.25	Macarthur FC - Adelaide United	2:1
14.03.25	Adelaide United - Macarthur FC	4:5
06.01.25	Macarthur FC - Adelaide United	1:2
12.04.24	Adelaide United - Macarthur FC	1:2
08.01.24	Adelaide United - Macarthur FC	1:1
04.12.23	Macarthur FC - Adelaide United	4:3

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