Match Info

A-League - Round 21

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Central Coast Stadium (Polytec) (Gosford)

Referee: Abraham B. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 10, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 6
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Central Coast Mariners		Adelaide United

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.9	2.25	Watch
	2.82	3.7	2.22
	2.92	3.8	2.36
	2.93	3.87	2.23	Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.2
	3.02	3.77	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.56)	3.76 ↑ (3.58)	2.26 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Central Coast Mariners
32.9%

Draw
25.2%

Adelaide United
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

25.6%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

25.2%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Central Coast Mariners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Adelaide United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central Coast Mariners than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	28.6%	64.3%

Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Central Coast will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Adelaide will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Adelaide: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Central Coast (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Adelaide (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Central Coast (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Central Coast (votes: 2 - 50%). Adelaide (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Redmayne A. (C) 15. Roux S. 2. Donachie J. 26. Tapp B. 5. Mauragis L. 48. Donnell C. 6. Eames H. 72. Auglah A. 8. McCalmont A. 17. Taniguchi K. 23. Lavale O.	22. Smits J. (G) 14. Barnett J. 3. Vriends B. (C) 4. Kikianis P. 7. Kitto R. 55. Alagich E. 19. Dukuly Y. 10. Muniz J. 44. White R. 12. Yull J. 9. Jovanovic L.
Substitutes
18. Blair N. 37. Brandtman B. 24. Herrington D. 11. James Ngor S. 43. Nasso J. 40. Peraic-Cullen D. (G) 16. Steele H.	87. Anselmo 42. Ayoubi A. 35. Burkitt B. 23. Duzel L. 65. Garuccio J. 52. Phillis S. 13. Vartuli M. (G)
Coaches
Moon W.	Andrioli A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Alagich E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Lavale O. ↓, Blair N. ↑,
57', Taniguchi K. ↓, James Ngor S. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, James Ngor S. ⚽,
68', White R. ↓, Garuccio J. ↑,
68', Jovanovic L. ↓, Duzel L. ↑,
68', Muniz J. ↓, Burkitt B. ↑,
68', Dukuly Y. ↓, Anselmo ↑,
79', Kitto R. ↓, Ayoubi A. ↑,
83', Auglah A. ↓, Brandtman B. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Alagich E. ⚽, Burkitt B. (A),
90', Brandtman B. 🟨,
90+2', Roux S. ↓, Nasso J. ↑,
90+2', Eames H. ↓, Steele H. ↑,
90+4', Kikianis P. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Central Coast won 3.

Central Coast is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Adelaide has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Adelaide may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Adelaide could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Central Coast: Clark S. (Injury) Di Pizio M. (Injury) Roux S. (Injury) Sainsbury T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Theoharous C. (Injury)

There will not play in Adelaide: Goodwin C. (Groin Injury) Pierias D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Central Coast won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 36:28. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Central Coast won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.7:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Adelaide United - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.44%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Central Coast Mariners
Australian A-League
04.03.26	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Newcastle Jets	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Brisbane Roar - Central Coast Mariners	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 36.2 WTWWW
- Adelaide United
Australian A-League
06.03.26	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Adelaide United - Perth Glory	4:0 ✺
14.02.26	Sydney - Adelaide United	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
04.01.26	Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners	0:4
13.12.24	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	0:4
26.10.24	Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners	1:1
01.05.24	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	2:0
03.02.24	Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners	0:4
20.10.23	Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners	3:0
20.05.23	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	2:0

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