Match Info

Date: 15 October 2022, Saturday

Location: The Airfield (Broughton)

Referee: Walker J. (Wal)


	Airbus UK Broughton		Pen-y-Bont

	1	X	2
	5	4.5	1.44
	6.8	4.5	1.35
	5.2	4.5	1.47
	6.15	4.51	1.44
	6	4.2	1.44
	5.8	4.6	1.42
	5.4	4.6	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.76 ↑ (4.42)	4.49 ↑ (3.92)	1.43 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Airbus UK Broughton
15.9%

Draw
20.4%

Pen-y-Bont
63.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

23.3%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

22.7%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Airbus UK Broughton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Pen-y-Bont has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pen-y-Bont's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Airbus UK Broughton than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pen-y-Bont, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Airbus UK Broughton - Pen y Bont Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Airbus UK Broughton will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Pen-y-Bont will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 12 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group)).

Airbus UK Broughton has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Pen-y-Bont is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Pen-y-Bont could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Pen-y-Bont is indisputable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Airbus UK Broughton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Airbus UK Broughton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Airbus UK Broughton
Welsh Cymru Premier
30.09.22	Airbus UK Broughton - Bala Town	0:6 ✺
27.09.22	Aberystwyth Town - Airbus UK Broughton	2:1 ✺
23.09.22	Airbus UK Broughton - Newtown	4:4 ✺
17.09.22	Pontypridd United - Airbus UK Broughton	1:0 ✺
02.09.22	Caernarfon Town - Airbus UK Broughton	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLTLL
- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
01.10.22	Flint Town United - Pen-y-Bont	1:1 ✺
27.09.22	Pen-y-Bont - Pontypridd United	1:1 ✺
23.09.22	Pen-y-Bont - Aberystwyth Town	3:1 ✺
Welsh League Cup
20.09.22	Pen-y-Bont - Ammanford	1:2 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
17.09.22	Newtown - Pen-y-Bont	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
09.11.19	Airbus UK Broughton - Pen-y-Bont	1:2
21.09.19	Pen-y-Bont - Airbus UK Broughton	3:1

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