Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Austria	DAZN
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Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
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Croatia	SportKlub 3
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Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic
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Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
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Italy	Como TV
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North-central-america	ESPN Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	TV Start
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Slovenia	SportKlub 3
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Spain	GolStadium
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Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Ajax		Feyenoord

	1	X	2
	3.2	4	2.05	Watch
	3.2	3.9	2.08
	3.29	3.95	2.12
	3.19	3.95	2.06	Watch
	3.1	3.7	2
	3.26	4.07	2.09	Watch
	3.14	3.8	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.73)	3.91 ↑ (3.75)	2.06 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
29.7%

Draw
24.3%

Feyenoord
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

24.9%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

23.8%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Feyenoord has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Feyenoord's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Feyenoord than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.1%	23.8%	38.1%

Ajax - Feyenoord Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 8 - 38.1%). Feyenoord will win (votes: 8 - 38.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 17.3% – 58.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ajax (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jaros V. (G) 2. Rosa L. 30. Bouwman A. 4. Itakura K. 5. Wijndal O. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 6. Regeer Y. 48. Steur S. 10. Gloukh O. 9. Dolberg K. 11. Godts M.	22. Wellenreuther T. (G) 2. Nieuwkoop B. 21. Ahmedhodzic A. 4. Watanabe T. 5. Smal G. 40. Valente L. 28. Targhalline O. 8. Timber Q. 23. Hadj Moussa A. (C) 9. Ueda A. 16. Sauer L.
Substitutes
41. Alders G. 43. Bounida R. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 3. Gaaei A. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 57. Johnson J. 19. Konadu D. 24. Mokio J. 7. Moro R. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 21. van den Boomen B.	1. Bijlow J. (G) 11. Borges G. 15. Bos J. 39. Bossin L. (G) 6. Hwang In-Beom 47. Kraaijeveld T. 10. Larin C. 30. Lotomba J. 43. Plug J. 32. Sliti A. 36. Slory J. 17. Tengstedt C.
Coaches
Grim F.	van Persie R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Klaassen D. ⚽, Gloukh O. (A),
28', Bouwman A. 🟨,
33', Nieuwkoop B. ↓, Lotomba J. ↑,
33', Hadj Moussa A. 🟨,
33', Wijndal O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Valente L. ↓, Hwang In-Beom ↑,
63', Smal G. ↓, Bos J. ↑,
66', Wijndal O. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
67', Klaassen D. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
74', Gloukh O. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
74', Steur S. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
81', Sauer L. ↓, Sliti A. ↑,
82', Targhalline O. ↓, Tengstedt C. ↑,
82', Dolberg K. ↓, Konadu D. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 0, Mokio J. ⚽, Godts M. (A),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ajax may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Ajax: Alders G. (Inactive) Baas Y. (Red Card) Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) McConnell J. (Health problems) Sutalo J. (Health problems) Taylor K. (Injury) Weghorst W. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Feyenoord: Beelen T. (Broken Leg) Hwang In-Beom (Injury) Jeng M. (Leg Injury) Moder J. (Back Injury) Nieuwkoop B. (Injury) Read G. (Muscle Injury) Steijn S. (Thigh Injury) Trauner G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Watanabe T. (Inactive) Zand S. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 41:28. (average 2.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:12. (average 2.1:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Ajax	2:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
06.12.25	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	1:3 ✺
02.12.25	Ajax - Groningen	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Ajax - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.25	Ajax - Excelsior	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWLL
- Feyenoord
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	FCSB - Feyenoord	4:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
06.12.25	Feyenoord - Zwolle	6:1 ✺
30.11.25	Telstar - Feyenoord	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Feyenoord - Celtic	1:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
23.11.25	Feyenoord - NEC Nijmegen	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
02.02.25	Ajax - Feyenoord	2:1
30.10.24	Feyenoord - Ajax	0:2
07.04.24	Feyenoord - Ajax	6:0
27.09.23	Ajax - Feyenoord	0:4
Dutch KNVB Beker
05.04.23	Feyenoord - Ajax	1:2
Dutch Eredivisie
19.03.23	Ajax - Feyenoord	2:3
22.01.23	Feyenoord - Ajax	1:1

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