Match Info

Eredivisie - Conference League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Kras Stadion (Volendam)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ajax		Groningen

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.7	4	Watch
	1.9	3.7	3.95
	1.9	3.85	4.17
	1.91	3.58	4.01	Watch
	1.83	3.7	3.7
	1.85	3.78	4.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.78)	3.72 ↓ (4.17)	4.04 ↓ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
50.7%

Draw
25.7%

Groningen
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

22.9%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

22.7%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Groningen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.1%	3.2%	9.7%

Ajax - Groningen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Groningen (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (27 of 31 users predict this - 87.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.3% – 98.9%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Groningen (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Paes M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 30. Bouwman A. 15. Baas Y. 2. Rosa L. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 24. Mokio J. 48. Steur S. 23. Berghuis S. 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.	1. Vaessen E. (G) 5. Rente M. (C) 3. Blokzijl T. 4. Janse D. 43. Peersman M. 18. Land T. 8. de Jonge T. 7. Hernes T. 17. van der Werff D. 14. Schreuders J. 26. van Bergen T.
Substitutes
43. Bounida R. 7. Carrizo M. 9. Dolberg K. 10. Gloukh O. 64. Kasanwirjo K. 19. Konadu D. 50. Muzungu M. 6. Regeer Y. 52. Reverson P. (G) 32. Tomiyasu T. 45. van de Pavert R. 58. van der Velde V. (G)	22. Bouland S. 44. Dillema J. 21. Jurjus H. (G) 48. Kelder R. 27. Mendes R. 16. Mercera T. 34. Metu R. 2. Prins W. 20. Seuntjens M. 13. Stubljar L. (G) 15. van der Laan E. 9. Willumsson B.
Coaches
Garcia O.	Lukkien D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Klaassen D. ⚽, Godts M. (A),
32', van Bergen T. ↓, Willumsson B. ↑,
40', Peersman M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 2 - 0, Mokio J. ⚽,
61', Janse D. 🟨,
62', Steur S. ↓, Regeer Y. ↑,
64', Godts M. 🟨,
67', Hernes T. ↓, Metu R. ↑,
67', Peersman M. ↓, Prins W. ↑,
67', van der Werff D. ↓, Seuntjens M. ↑,
71', Weghorst W. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
71', Berghuis S. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
77', Land T. ↓, Mendes R. ↑,
84', Klaassen D. ↓, Tomiyasu T. ↑,
90+1', Willumsson B. 🟨,
90+2', Seuntjens M. 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - Kras Stadion.

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Ajax is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Ajax: Edvardsen O. (Inactive) Fitz-Jim K. (Shoulder Injury) Jaros V. (Knee Injury) Zinchenko O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Groningen: Resink S. (Knee Injury) Zawada O. (Arm Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Sutalo J. (Injury) Wijndal O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Groningen: van der Werff D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 45:18. (average 2.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 29:4. (average 2.9:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15:13	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Ajax - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 53.68%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
17.05.26	Heerenveen - Ajax	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Ajax - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	NAC Breda - Ajax	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLTWW
- FC Groningen
Dutch Eredivisie
17.05.26	Heracles Almelo - Groningen	1:2 ✺
10.05.26	Groningen - NEC Nijmegen	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Groningen - Excelsior	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Feyenoord - Groningen	3:1 ✺
11.04.26	Groningen - Go Ahead Eagles	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
07.03.26	Groningen - Ajax	3:1
02.12.25	Ajax - Groningen	2:0
14.05.25	Groningen - Ajax	2:2
06.10.24	Ajax - Groningen	3:1
16.05.23	Groningen - Ajax	2:3
14.08.22	Ajax - Groningen	6:1
02.04.22	Groningen - Ajax	1:3

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