Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: van der Laan J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN 6
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 9
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports 1
India	Eurosport
Indonesia	Kompas TV, Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Japan	U-NEXT
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Russia	TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Spain	DAZN Espana
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Ajax		Excelsior

	1	X	2
	1.25	6.5	11	Watch
	1.24	7.00	10.00
	1.24	6.2	11.5
	1.24	6.98	10.71
	1.24	6.91	10.16	Watch
	1.22	6.9	10
	1.24	6.59	12.2	Watch
	1.23	6.6	9.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.34)	6.71 ↑ (5.15)	10.62 ↑ (7.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
76.9%

Draw
14.2%

Excelsior
9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.9%

18.2%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

17.5%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ajax's performance.

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Ajax - Excelsior Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. ter Stegen M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 6. Kehrer T. 15. Baas Y. 12. Caio Henrique 18. Klaassen D. (C) 24. Mokio J. 8. Brandt J. 11. Tsygankov V. 9. Dolberg K. 10. Gloukh O.	1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. da Silva Moreira E. 4. Widell C. (C) 14. Plug J. 15. Janssen S. 8. Yegoian I. 3. Meissen R. 20. Hartjes L. 7. Sliti A. 19. Garden D. 30. Thorsteinsson A.
Substitutes
4. Amrabat S. 99. Arokodare T. 43. Bounida R. 20. Edvardsen O. 36. Janse D. 38. Marcos Leonardo 68. Ouazane A. 26. Paes M. (G) 2. Rosa L. 51. Setford C. (G) 21. Torrents J. 5. Wijndal O.	16. Biai C. (G) 12. Bos K. 24. Cairo G. 9. Dominguez M. 28. Groen N. 11. Jahanbakhsh A. 21. Silva Timas I. 18. Sulzbacher V. 22. Turay O. 6. van Vianen D.
Coaches
Michel	den Uil R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', Caio Henrique ↓, Wijndal O. ↑,
32', 1 - 0, Brandt J. ⚽, Dolberg K. (A),
35', Plug J. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Hartjes L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Tsygankov V. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
62', Dolberg K. ↓, Arokodare T. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Sliti A. ⚽, Yegoian I. (A),
64', 2 - 2, Arokodare T. ⚽, Gloukh O. (A),
66', da Silva Moreira E. ↓, Bos K. ↑,
71', Thorsteinsson A. ↓, Silva Timas I. ↑,
71', Sliti A. ↓, Jahanbakhsh A. ↑,
76', Mokio J. ↓, Amrabat S. ↑,
77', Klaassen D. ↓, Ouazane A. ↑,
85', Yegoian I. 🟨,
85', Gloukh O. 🟨,
85', Garden D. ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 4th in the Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Playoffs and 7th in the Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Playoffs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 1.

Ajax is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Excelsior have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Excelsior could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Ajax holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Confirmed absences for Ajax: Adingra S. (Foot Injury) Bouwman A. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Ajax: Blind D. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Excelsior: Naujoks N. (Inactive).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Ajax has recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 51:20 (averaging 2.8:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ajax against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 25:11 goals (averaging 2.8:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15:9	6	11

Last Results with these Odds

Ajax - the odds 1.34 are the expected chance of winning is 69.9%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
15.09.26	Ajax - Willem II	5:1 ✺
12.09.26	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	1:5 ✺
05.09.26	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Telstar - Ajax	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Ajax - Sion	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWLWW
- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
13.09.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Willem II - Excelsior	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
01.02.26	Excelsior - Ajax	2:2
22.11.25	Ajax - Excelsior	1:2
24.04.24	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2
19.08.23	Excelsior - Ajax	2:2
29.01.23	Excelsior - Ajax	1:4
16.10.22	Ajax - Excelsior	7:1
13.04.19	Ajax - Excelsior	6:2

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