Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	18:45	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	14:45	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	18:45	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	14:45	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	19:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
China	01:45	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	12:45	ESPN
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 3
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	18:45	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	18:45	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	19:45	MTV Katsomo+
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	21:45	Silk Universal
Germany	18:45	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	19:45	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	18:45	RTL+
Iceland	17:45	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	23:15	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	17:45	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Japan	02:45	Wowow Live
Kenya	20:45	Gotv
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	11:45	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Netherlands	18:45	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	18:45	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte
Norway	18:45	TV2 Play
Pakistan	22:45	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	03:45	TVWan Sports
Peru	12:45	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	18:45	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	17:45	Sport TV5
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Singapore	01:45	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	18:45	JOJ Sport 2, Voyo
South Africa	19:45	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	02:45	SPOTV Now
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	18:45	Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Thailand	00:45	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	20:45	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3, TNT Sports 8, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	00:45	ON Plus


	Ajax		Benfica

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.5	2
	3.5	3.6	2.12
	3.61	3.7	2.1
	3.84	3.71	1.91	Watch
	3.63	3.71	2.13
	3.33	3.6	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↓ (3.83)	3.64 ↓ (3.72)	2.06 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ajax
26.9%

Draw
26.5%

Benfica
46.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.1%

25.9%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

26.7%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.2%	14.8%	75%

Ajax - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 101 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 11 - 10.9%). Benfica will win (votes: 78 - 77.2%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 11.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 69% – 85.4%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Benfica (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.67) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -0.5 - Benfica (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (38 of 51 users predict this - 74.51%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 53 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 3.8%). Benfica (votes: 40 - 75.5%). Tie (votes: 11 - 20.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jaros V. (G) 6. Regeer Y. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 4. Itakura K. 8. Taylor K. 43. Bounida R. 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 5. Barrenechea E. 20. Rios R. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 10. Sudakov G. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
41. Alders G. 9. Dolberg K. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 3. Gaaei A. 10. Gloukh O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 16. McConnell J. 24. Mokio J. 7. Moro R. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L.	39. Araujo H. 44. Araujo T. 9. Ivanovic F. 16. Manu 3. Obrador R. 25. Prestianni G. 84. Rego J. 67. Rego R. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J. 66. Wynder J.
Coaches
Grim F.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Dahl S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Wijndal O. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
69', Weghorst W. 🟨,
74', Dahl S. 🟨,
74', Klaassen D. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
74', Bounida R. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
74', Godts M. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
81', Sudakov G. ↓, Araujo T. ↑,
83', Regeer Y. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
90', 0 - 2, Barreiro L. ⚽, Aursnes F. (A),
90+2', Pavlidis V. ↓, Manu ↑,
90+3', Barreiro L. ↓, Rego R. ↑,

Preview

Recent form of Ajax has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Benfica is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ajax may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Benfica might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Broken ankle) Manu (Knee Injury) Santos L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Gaaei A. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.25	Ajax - Excelsior	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Utrecht - Ajax	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Ajax - Galatasaray	0:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
01.11.25	Ajax - Heerenveen	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Twente - Ajax	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLTW
- SL Benfica
Taça de Portugal
21.11.25	Atlético CP - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
01.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	0:3 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
15.03.22	Ajax - Benfica	0:1
23.02.22	Benfica - Ajax	2:2
07.11.18	Benfica - Ajax	1:1
23.10.18	Ajax - Benfica	1:0
Club Friendly
26.07.14	Benfica - Ajax	0:1

Upcoming Matches