Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Japan	Wowow Live
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	JOJ Sport 2, Voyo
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3, TNT Sports 8, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Ajax		Benfica

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.5	2
	3.5	3.6	2.12
	3.61	3.7	2.1
	3.84	3.71	1.91	Watch
	3.63	3.71	2.13
	3.33	3.6	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↓ (3.83)	3.64 ↓ (3.72)	2.06 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
26.9%

Draw
26.5%

Benfica
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

25.9%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

26.7%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.2%	14.8%	75%

Ajax - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 101 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 11 - 10.9%). Benfica will win (votes: 78 - 77.2%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 11.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 69% – 85.4%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Benfica (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.67) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -0.5 - Benfica (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (38 of 51 users predict this - 74.51%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 53 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 3.8%). Benfica (votes: 40 - 75.5%). Tie (votes: 11 - 20.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jaros V. (G) 6. Regeer Y. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 4. Itakura K. 8. Taylor K. 43. Bounida R. 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 5. Barrenechea E. 20. Rios R. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 10. Sudakov G. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
41. Alders G. 9. Dolberg K. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 3. Gaaei A. 10. Gloukh O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 16. McConnell J. 24. Mokio J. 7. Moro R. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rosa L.	39. Araujo H. 44. Araujo T. 9. Ivanovic F. 16. Manu 3. Obrador R. 25. Prestianni G. 84. Rego J. 67. Rego R. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J. 66. Wynder J.
Coaches
Grim F.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Dahl S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Wijndal O. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
69', Weghorst W. 🟨,
74', Dahl S. 🟨,
74', Klaassen D. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
74', Bounida R. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
74', Godts M. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
81', Sudakov G. ↓, Araujo T. ↑,
83', Regeer Y. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
90', 0 - 2, Barreiro L. ⚽, Aursnes F. (A),
90+2', Pavlidis V. ↓, Manu ↑,
90+3', Barreiro L. ↓, Rego R. ↑,

Preview

Recent form of Ajax has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Benfica is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ajax may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Benfica might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Broken ankle) Manu (Knee Injury) Santos L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Gaaei A. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.25	Ajax - Excelsior	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Utrecht - Ajax	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Ajax - Galatasaray	0:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
01.11.25	Ajax - Heerenveen	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Twente - Ajax	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLTW
- SL Benfica
Taça de Portugal
21.11.25	Atlético CP - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
01.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	0:3 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
15.03.22	Ajax - Benfica	0:1
23.02.22	Benfica - Ajax	2:2
07.11.18	Benfica - Ajax	1:1
23.10.18	Ajax - Benfica	1:0
Club Friendly
26.07.14	Benfica - Ajax	0:1

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