Match Info

Premier League - Round 7

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Turkestan Arena (Turkestan)

Referee: Tasybaev A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Aktobe		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.55	4.05
	1.78	3.65	4.23
	1.79	3.52	4.1	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.33
	1.83	3.45	4.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.72)	3.49 ↓ (3.87)	4.2 ↑ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe
51.6%

Draw
26.4%

Ertis Pavlodar
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

23.8%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

23.4%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Ertis Pavlodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Aktobe - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Aktobe will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aktobe (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Zarutskiy A. (G) 23. Erlanov T. 18. Ordets I. (C) 3. Mitrovic D. 31. Tanzharikov A. 20. Zhukov G. 21. Alvarez P. 30. Korzun N. 10. Zeljkovic A. 80. Kenesov A. 11. Shushenachev A.	16. Botnar V. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 5. Toleuov B. 33. Ibrahim F. 22. Stephen G. 9. Omatay M. 8. Zharynbetov S. (C) 7. Klimovich V. 98. Sedko P. 10. Agimanov T. 97. Poe J.
Substitutes
42. Baydavletov A. 27. Dosmagambetov T. 5. Kairov B. 29. Kikbaev M. 52. Kusainov S. (G) 19. Laturnus V. 17. Nani 14. Pibe 22. Seydakhmet E. 12. Topalov D. 49. Toregali N. 1. Trofimets I. (G)	13. Baybosynov N. 21. Buranchiev A. 12. Karimov R. 4. Khadarkevich R. 26. Mbodj M. 14. Raskatov V. 1. Rikhard M. (G) 6. Shimamura Y. 18. Shvyrev V. 17. Turlybek M.
Coaches
Tarkovic S.	Alshevskiy K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Sedko P. 🟨,
19', Omatay M. 🟨,
45+2', Mitrovic D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Omatay M. ↓, Shimamura Y. ↑,
46', Alvarez P. ↓, Pibe ↑,
52', Korzun N. 🟨,
61', Kenesov A. ↓, Topalov D. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Shushenachev A. ⚽,
64', Poe J. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
69', Shushenachev A. ↓, Laturnus V. ↑,
74', Topalov D. ↓, Kikbaev M. ↑,
74', Zeljkovic A. ↓, Nani ↑,
75', Klimovich V. ↓, Shvyrev V. ↑,
90+2', Agimanov T. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
90+4', Tanzharikov A. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Aktobe is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:29. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aktobe won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:13. (average 1.8:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Aktobe	26	12	6	8	38:31	7	42
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe
Kazakh Premier League
19.04.26	Zhenis - Aktobe	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Aktobe - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Arys - Aktobe	0:4 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
05.04.26	Ulytau - Aktobe	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWWTL
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
18.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Okzhetpes - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Altai Semey	1:0 ✺
20.03.26	Kyzylzhar - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
16.03.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
25.08.19	Aktobe - Ertis Pavlodar	1:1
30.06.19	Aktobe - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1
20.04.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Aktobe	0:1
Kazakh Cup
10.04.19	Aktobe - Ertis Pavlodar	3:4 penalties
Kazakh Premier League
26.09.18	Aktobe - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0
27.05.18	Aktobe - Ertis Pavlodar	1:1
17.03.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Aktobe	2:1

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