Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 10

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday

Location: Al Fateh club stadium (Al-Hofuf)

Where to Watch on TV:


Saudi-arabia	Thmanyah App


	Al Fateh		Al Akhdoud

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	4.75
	1.61	4.1	4.8
	1.55	4.15	5.15
	1.51	4.58	5.45	Watch
	1.53	3.7	4.8
	1.58	3.98	4.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.79)	4.02 ↑ (3.64)	4.94 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al Fateh
58.7%

Draw
22.8%

Al Akhdoud
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

25.1%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

20.2%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al Fateh has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al Fateh's performance.

Al Akhdoud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al Akhdoud might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al Fateh than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al Fateh that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Akhdoud than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al Akhdoud could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Al Fateh - Al Akhdoud Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al Fateh (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Al Fateh (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Al Akhdoud (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al Fateh will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Al Fateh (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Al Akhdoud (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pacheco F. (G) 37. Al Sarnoukh M. 4. Al Jari Z. (C) 44. Fernandes J. 78. Al Swealem A. 33. Youssouf Z. 94. Al Anazi A. 98. Al Fawaz A. 27. Al Zubaidi F. 23. Wesley Delgado 70. Refaat A.	94. Samuel Portugal (G) 18. Pedroza J. 15. Asiri N. 17. Gul G. 22. Gunter K. (C) 42. Fagihy M. 13. Bassogog C. 55. Borrell M. 5. Neyou Y. 11. Ince B. 99. Al Lazam K.
Substitutes
22. Al Burayh Mahmoud (G) 25. Al Sahihi M. 49. Al Sharfa S. 15. Baattia S. 11. Batna M. 28. Bendebka S. 6. Masoud N. 12. Qasim H. 17. Saadane M.	21. Abu Abd M. 14. Al Abbas S. 20. Al Harthi S. M. 12. Al Hatila A. 10. Al Jahif M. 1. Al Najjar R. (G) 98. Al Qaydhi M. 8. Al Zabdani H. 19. Salem S.
Coaches
Gomes J.	Sumudica M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Refaat A. 🟨,
24', Al Fawaz A. 🟨,
43', Wesley Delgado 🟨,
45+1', Gul G. 🟨,
45+2', Al Swealem A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Al Lazam K. ↓, Al Abbas S. ↑,
46', Al Fawaz A. ↓, Bendebka S. ↑,
46', Al Anazi A. ↓, Masoud N. ↑,
46', Refaat A. ↓, Batna M. ↑,
54', Gunter K. 🟨,
55', 1 - 0, Batna M. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Borrell M. ↓, Abu Abd M. ↑,
59', Neyou Y. ↓, Al Hatila A. ↑,
73', Al Sarnoukh M. ↓, Baattia S. ↑,
73', Al Swealem A. ↓, Saadane M. ↑,
85', 2 - 0, Bendebka S. ⚽,
90+1', Gul G. ↓, Al Jahif M. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 1, Asiri N. ⚽,
90+3', Fernandes J. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Al Fateh is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Al Akhdoud is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Al Fateh may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Al Fateh is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al Fateh won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 2.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Al Fateh won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Al Fateh	8	0	3	5	4:15	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al Fateh SC
Saudi Professional League
19.02.26	Al-Ettifaq Dammam - Al Fateh	4:3 ✺
14.02.26	Al Fateh - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Al-Qadisiya - Al Fateh	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Al Fateh - Al Hazem	1:1 ✺
29.01.26	Al Fateh - Al-Ittihad Jeddah	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LLTTT
- Al Akhdoud Club
Saudi Professional League
20.02.26	Al Akhdoud - Al-Qadisiya	2:4 ✺
12.02.26	Al Hazem - Al Akhdoud	2:1 ✺
05.02.26	Al Akhdoud - Al-Hilal	0:6 ✺
02.02.26	Al Akhdoud - Neom	1:1 ✺
30.01.26	Al-Taawoun - Al Akhdoud	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Saudi Professional League
24.02.25	Al Akhdoud - Al Fateh	1:3
28.09.24	Al Fateh - Al Akhdoud	2:4
30.12.23	Al Fateh - Al Akhdoud	0:0
Saudi King Cup
27.09.23	Al Fateh - Al Akhdoud	3:1
Saudi Professional League
18.08.23	Al Akhdoud - Al Fateh	1:3

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