Match Info

Stars League - Round 19

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Iraq	Iraqia Syriac


	Al-Qasim		Arbil

	1	X	2
	8.6	4.35	1.3
	9.31	4.73	1.29	Watch
	9	4.5	1.29
	8.8	4.45	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.93 ↑ (7.42)	4.51 ↑ (4.08)	1.3 ↓ (1.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Qasim
10.1%

Draw
20.1%

Arbil
69.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.2%

22.2%

65.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.4%

18.8%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Qasim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Arbil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Qasim than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arbil, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Al Qasim - Arbil Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
78', 0 - 1, Temirov S. ⚽,
81', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 4).

Al-Qasim has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Arbil has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Arbil is the obvious favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Al-Qasim won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 2:0).

Including home match between the teams, Al-Qasim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	12:3	9	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Qasim SC
Iraqi Premier League
14.02.26	Naft Maysan - Al-Qasim	2:1 ✺
05.02.26	Najaf - Al-Qasim	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Al-Qasim - Duhok	0:3 ✺
28.01.26	Al-Qasim - Al Mosul	2:3 ✺
22.01.26	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Al-Qasim	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTLLL
- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
14.02.26	Arbil - Zakho	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Arbil - Al-Naft	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Amanat Baghdad - Arbil	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Al-Karkh - Arbil	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Arbil - Al-Talaba	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
03.04.25	Arbil - Al-Qasim	0:1
24.10.24	Al-Qasim - Arbil	4:0
06.04.24	Arbil - Al-Qasim	0:1

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