Match Info

Stars League - Round 17

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Franso Hariri Stadium (Arbil)


	Arbil		Al-Naft

	1	X	2
	2.18	2.82	3.4
	2.17	2.75	3.54
	2.23	2.76	3.55	Watch
	2.2	2.6	3.4
	2.18	2.75	3.59
	2.16	2.75	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.07)	2.74 ↓ (3.01)	3.5 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbil
41.3%

Draw
32.9%

Al-Naft
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

30.4%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

29.7%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Al-Naft has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Naft than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Arbil - Al Naft Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Arbil will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Kareem W. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
53', 1 - 1, Al Zubaidi H. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 1, Qabeel M. ⚽,
90+9', 3 - 1, Temirov S. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Arbil will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbil won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	12:3	9	17
6	Al Naft	8	4	3	1	9:5	4	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
31.01.26	Amanat Baghdad - Arbil	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Al-Karkh - Arbil	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Arbil - Al-Talaba	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Al-Zawraa - Arbil	1:0 ✺
13.01.26	Arbil - Duhok	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TTLLW
- Al-Naft
Iraqi Premier League
01.02.26	Al-Naft - Al-Zawraa	0:0 ✺
28.01.26	Al-Minaa - Al-Naft	0:0 ✺
23.01.26	Al-Naft - Naft Maysan	1:2 ✺
19.01.26	Al-Naft - Al-Kahraba	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Al-Gharraf - Al-Naft	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
16.04.25	Arbil - Al-Naft	2:3
28.01.25	Al-Naft - Arbil	0:2
12.05.24	Al-Naft - Arbil	0:1
07.05.23	Al-Naft - Arbil	0:2
05.12.22	Arbil - Al-Naft	2:0
04.05.22	Al-Naft - Arbil	2:0
02.01.21	Al-Naft - Arbil	1:1

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