Match Info

AFC Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium (Jeddah)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
China	iQIYI
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	ESPN
Pakistan	Tapmad
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Coupang Play
Vietnam	TV 360


	Al-Sadd		Vissel Kobe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.28	3.35	2.92	Watch
	2.33	3.5	3.07
	2.28	3.58	2.89	Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.9
	2.34	3.5	3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.81)	3.45 ↓ (4.04)	2.96 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Sadd
40.9%

Draw
27.3%

Vissel Kobe
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

23.1%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

22.9%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Sadd has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Sadd's performance.

Vissel Kobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vissel Kobe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Sadd than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Sadd that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vissel Kobe than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vissel Kobe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Al Sadd - Vissel Kobe Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Al-Sadd will win (votes: 8 - 80%). Vissel Kobe will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Sadd: 55.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Sadd (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Barsham M. (G) 2. Pedro Miguel 16. Khoukhi B. 29. Saiss R. 6. Paulo Otavio 80. Soria A. 4. Camara M. 33. Claudinho 7. Afif A. (C) 9. Roberto Firmino 19. Mujica R.	1. Maekawa D. (G) 24. Sakai G. 4. Yamakawa T. (C) 3. Thuler M. 41. Nagato K. 6. Ogihara T. 7. Ideguchi Y. 11. Muto Y. 5. Goke Y. 13. Sasaki D. 10. Osako Y.
Substitutes
31. Abdullla Y. (G) 10. Al Haydos H. 23. Ali H. 1. Al Sheeb S. (G) 13. Al Yazidi A. 8. Asad A. 66. Bakri Al Ameen A. 24. Dilrosun J. 3. El Hannach Y. 21. Giovani 5. Salman T. 37. Suhail A.	16. Caetano 71. Gonda S. (G) 52. Hamasaki K. 44. Hidaka M. 23. Hirose R. 2. Iino N. 88. Inui T. 26. Jean Patric 25. Kuwasaki Y. 19. Mitsuta M. 80. Nduka B. 40. Uchino K.
Coaches
Mancini R.	Skibbe M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Mujica R. ⚽, Afif A. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Osako Y. ⚽, Sakai G. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Pedro Miguel ↓, Salman T. ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Mujica R. ⚽, Roberto Firmino (A),
65', 3 - 1, Roberto Firmino ⚽, Mujica R. (A),
67', Sasaki D. ↓, Mitsuta M. ↑,
67', Goke Y. ↓, Jean Patric ↑,
74', 3 - 2, Ideguchi Y. ⚽, Jean Patric (A),
81', Ogihara T. ↓, Hamasaki K. ↑,
81', Sakai G. ↓, Hirose R. ↑,
82', Camara M. ↓, Giovani ↑,
89', Ideguchi Y. ↓, Hidaka M. ↑,
90', Mujica R. ↓, Suhail A. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 3, Muto Y. ⚽, Hirose R. (A),
Extra Time (0 - 0)
93', Thuler M. ↓, Caetano ↑,
96', Saiss R. ↓, Dilrosun J. ↑,
108', Gonda S. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Roberto Firmino (Penalty Awarded),
1, Osako Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Soria A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Muto Y. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Claudinho (Penalty Awarded),
3, Hidaka M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Khoukhi B. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Nagato K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Afif A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Jean Patric (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Al-Sadd has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vissel Kobe is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vissel Kobe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Al-Sadd has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Sadd SC
AFC Champions League
13.04.26	Al-Hilal - Al-Sadd	3:4 penalties ✺
Qatar QSL
08.04.26	Al-Sailiya - Al-Sadd	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Al-Rayyan - Al-Sadd	1:1 ✺
17.03.26	Al-Arabi Doha - Al-Sadd	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Al-Sadd - Umm-Salal	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWTLL
- Vissel Kobe
Japan J1 League
11.04.26	Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus	3:2 ✺
05.04.26	Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe	1:4 ✺
01.04.26	Vissel Kobe - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:0 ✺
27.03.26	Vissel Kobe - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWL

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