Match Info

J1 League - Round 10

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	12:55	K-Ball
Japan	13:55	DAZN Japan


	Fagiano Okayama		Vissel Kobe

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.65	3.20	2.60
	2.72	3.1	2.52	Watch
	2.86	3.4	2.66
	2.79	3.25	2.59	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.6
	2.84	3.25	2.59	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.92)	3.22 ↓ (3.28)	2.57 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
34.1%

Draw
29.3%

Vissel Kobe
36.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.3%

28.8%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

29.3%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Vissel Kobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vissel Kobe than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Vissel Kobe will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moser L. (G) 44. Mori S. 48. Tatsuta Y. 43. Suzuki Y. 51. Shirai K. 41. Miyamoto E. 80. Oberdan 88. Yamane T. 10. Na Sang-Ho 8. Esaka A. (C) 99. Lucao	71. Gonda S. (G) 24. Sakai G. 4. Yamakawa T. (C) 3. Thuler M. 15. Diego 7. Ideguchi Y. 25. Kuwasaki Y. 94. Erik 11. Muto Y. 10. Osako Y. 41. Nagato K.
Substitutes
79. Browne N. 55. Fujii Y. 52. Hamada T. (G) 33. Kamiya Yuta 20. Kawano K. 9. Leo Gaucho 28. Matsumoto M. 19. Sato R. 7. Takeuchi R.	16. Caetano 5. Goke Y. 44. Hidaka M. 2. Iino N. 23. Iwamoto Y. 26. Jean Patric 29. Komatsu R. 1. Maekawa D. (G) 20. Watanabe K.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Skibbe M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Lucao 🟨,
43', Oberdan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Nagato K. ↓, Iwamoto Y. ↑,
46', Lucao ↓, Leo Gaucho ↑,
46', Leo Gaucho 🟨,
49', 0 - 1, Osako Y. ⚽,
56', 0 - 2, Osako Y. ⚽, Muto Y. (A),
63', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
64', 0 - 3, Thuler M. ⚽,
66', Oberdan ↓, Sato R. ↑,
66', Yamane T. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
76', Osako Y. ↓, Komatsu R. ↑,
77', Muto Y. ↓, Jean Patric ↑,
79', Esaka A. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
83', Erik ↓, Iino N. ↑,
85', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Browne N. ↑,
90', Sakai G. ↓, Goke Y. ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 9th and 5th).

In recent outings, Okayama has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Vissel Kobe shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Vissel Kobe could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Okayama has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:8 (averaging 1.3:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Okayama against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 2:6 goals (averaging 1:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	14:9	5	19
11	Okayama	9	4	1	4	12:12	0	13

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Vissel Kobe: 13% Okayama: 1.19%

Last Results with these Odds

Fagiano Okayama - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 32.34%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	4:3 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
10.10.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Fagiano Okayama - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Consadole Sapporo - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWWL
- Vissel Kobe
AFC Champions League
14.10.26	Vissel Kobe - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
09.10.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Vissel Kobe	4:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
20.09.26	Gamba Osaka - Vissel Kobe	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
16.09.26	Thai Port - Vissel Kobe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
10.05.26	Vissel Kobe - Fagiano Okayama	0:3
05.04.26	Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe	1:4
20.07.25	Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe	1:2
03.05.25	Vissel Kobe - Fagiano Okayama	2:0

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