Match Info

J1 League - Round 8

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Cerezo Osaka		Vissel Kobe

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.45	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.1
	2.72	3.35	2.38	Watch
	2.81	3.45	2.6
	2.73	3.51	2.49	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.45
	2.76	3.3	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (3.24)	3.37 ↓ (3.58)	2.42 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerezo Osaka
33.6%

Draw
27.7%

Vissel Kobe
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

26.4%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

26.7%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Vissel Kobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vissel Kobe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vissel Kobe than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vissel Kobe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Vissel Kobe will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerezo Osaka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Cerezo Osaka (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerezo Osaka (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Nakamura K. (G) 16. Okuda H. 4. Inoue R. 44. Hatanaka S. 6. Noborizato K. 18. Ishiwatari N. 10. Tanaka S. 17. Sakata R. 48. Shibayama M. 19. Homma S. 11. Thiago Andrade	1. Maekawa D. (G) 43. Yamada K. 3. Thuler M. 16. Caetano 41. Nagato K. 6. Ogihara T. 5. Goke Y. 14. Inui T. 23. Hirose R. 29. Komatsu R. 15. Diego
Substitutes
27. Cools D. 8. Kagawa S. 5. Kida H. 21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 13. Nakajima M. 66. Ohata A. 9. Sakuragawa S. 3. Tanaka H. 14. Yokoyama Y.	71. Gonda S. (G) 28. Hamasaki K. 44. Hidaka M. 2. Iino N. 26. Jean Patric 25. Kuwasaki Y. 80. Nduka B. 40. Uchino K. 4. Yamakawa T.
Coaches
Papas A.	Skibbe M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Inoue R. ⚽, Shibayama M. (A),
33', Caetano 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Caetano ↓, Yamakawa T. ↑,
46', Yamada K. ↓, Hamasaki K. ↑,
46', Inui T. ↓, Hidaka M. ↑,
46', Noborizato K. ↓, Ohata A. ↑,
56', Ogihara T. 🟨,
59', Homma S. ↓, Sakuragawa S. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Hidaka M. ⚽,
68', Diego ↓, Jean Patric ↑,
75', Sakata R. ↓, Cools D. ↑,
75', Thiago Andrade ↓, Yokoyama Y. ↑,
76', Ishiwatari N. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
80', Sakuragawa S. 🟨,
81', Komatsu R. ↓, Uchino K. ↑,
Penalties (6 - 5)
1, Kagawa S. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Ogihara T. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Cools D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Uchino K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Tanaka S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Nagato K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Hatanaka S. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Hidaka M. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Inoue R. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Jean Patric (Penalty Awarded),
6, Shibayama M. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Hamasaki K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 1.

In recent matches, Cerezo Osaka has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vissel Kobe is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vissel Kobe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Vissel Kobe might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L. (Knee Injury) Kim Jin-Hyeon (Ankle Injury) Takahashi T. (Back Injury) Uejo S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Vissel Kobe: Arai S. (Knee Injury) Iwanami T. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Yengi K. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:18. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.4:0.9).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Vissel Kobe: 20.95% Cerezo Osaka: 1.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Vissel Kobe	4	2	1	1	4:3	1	7
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3:5	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Vissel Kobe - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.4%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
18.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Kyoto Sanga - Cerezo Osaka	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 penalties ✺
28.02.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWLL
- Vissel Kobe
Japan J1 League
18.03.26	Vissel Kobe - Gamba Osaka	2:3 penalties ✺
14.03.26	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	0:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
11.03.26	Vissel Kobe - FC Seoul	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	FC Seoul - Vissel Kobe	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
27.02.26	Vissel Kobe - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
23.08.25	Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe	1:1
06.05.25	Vissel Kobe - Cerezo Osaka	1:3
13.09.24	Vissel Kobe - Cerezo Osaka	2:1
11.05.24	Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe	1:4
23.09.23	Vissel Kobe - Cerezo Osaka	1:0
10.06.23	Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe	2:1
06.08.22	Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe	3:0

Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide