Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 33

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, SupeSport ESPN 1, ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Asia	JACO Middle East
Australia	Channel 10
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 3
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hungary	Spiler1 TV
India	FanCode, FanCode
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Saudi-arabia	Thmanyah
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Spain	Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tabii Spor 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
Usa	FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, FOX One, Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports App, Foxsports.com
World	Onefootball


	Al-Shabab Riyadh		Al-Nassr Riyadh

	1	X	2
	7	5	1.29
	7.5	5.7	1.3
	7.32	5.85	1.33
	7.14	5.43	1.35
	6.5	5	1.3
	7.95	5.77	1.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.24 ↑ (5.37)	5.46 ↑ (4.73)	1.31 ↓ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Shabab Riyadh
12.8%

Draw
16.9%

Al-Nassr Riyadh
70.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

19.6%

63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.8%

19%

65.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Shabab Riyadh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Al-Nassr Riyadh has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Nassr Riyadh's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Shabab Riyadh than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Nassr Riyadh than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Al-Nassr Riyadh, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Al Shabab Riyadh - Al Nassr Riyadh Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Al-Nassr (1.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Al-Nassr (1.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Nassr Riyadh will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Nassr (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. Marcelo Grohe (G) 17. Al Thani M. 4. Hoedt W. 3. Al Bulayhi A. 31. Balobaid S. 8. Brownhill J. 14. Sierro V. 22. Al Hammami H. 29. Adli Y. 99. Azaizeh A. 10. Carrasco Y. (C)	24. Bento (G) 2. Al Ghannam S. 5. Al Amri A. 26. Martinez I. 23. Yahya A. 29. Ghareeb A. 17. Al Khaibari A. 11. Brozovic M. 10. Mane S. 79. Joao Felix 7. Ronaldo C. (C)
Substitutes
23. Al Awardi A. (G) 91. Al Othman A. 20. Al Sayyali B. 2. Al Shwirekh M. 16. Al Sibyani H. K. A. 6. Al Subiani F. 7. Hernandez U. 5. Makki A. 37. Matuq A.	9. Al Hamdan A. 19. Al Hassan A. 83. Al Najdi S. 96. Al Nasser S. 53. Al Otaibi A. (G) 4. Al Sharari N. 12. Boushal N. 16. Maran M.
Coaches
Zekri N.	Jesus J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Joao Felix ⚽,
10', 0 - 2, Joao Felix ⚽, Ghareeb A. (A),
30', 1 - 2, Carrasco Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
71', Ghareeb A. ↓, Boushal N. ↑,
75', 1 - 3, Ronaldo C. ⚽, Mane S. (A),
78', Sierro V. ↓, Al Sayyali B. ↑,
78', Azaizeh A. ↓, Al Othman A. ↑,
80', 2 - 3, Al Bulayhi A. ⚽, Al Hammami H. (A),
85', Balobaid S. 🟨,
86', Yahya A. ↓, Al Najdi S. ↑,
87', Al Ghannam S. ↓, Al Nasser S. ↑,
90+1', Ronaldo C. ↓, Al Hamdan A. ↑,
90+1', Brozovic M. ↓, Al Hassan A. ↑,
90+7', 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 4, Joao Felix (Penalty Awarded),
90+10', Al Najdi S. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).

Al-Nassr is Qualified for AFC Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Shabab won 0.

Al-Shabab has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Al-Nassr is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Al-Shabab may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Al-Nassr is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Shabab won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 22:36. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Shabab won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1.1:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Al Nassr	8	6	1	1	19:7	12	19
14	Al Shabab	7	0	4	3	6:11	-5	4

Last Results with these Odds

Al-Nassr Riyadh - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 63.11%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Shabab Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
03.05.26	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Taawoun	1:5 ✺
28.04.26	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al Fateh	1:1 ✺
Gulf Club Champions League
23.04.26	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Rayyan	0:3 ✺
19.04.26	Zakho - Al-Shabab Riyadh	1:2 penalties ✺
Saudi Professional League
14.04.26	Al-Qadisiya - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTLWT
- Al-Nassr Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
03.05.26	Al-Qadisiya - Al-Nassr Riyadh	3:1 ✺
29.04.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Ahli Jeddah	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
22.04.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Ahli Doha	5:1 ✺
19.04.26	Al Wasl - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:4 ✺
Saudi Professional League
15.04.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Ettifaq Dammam	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Saudi Professional League
17.01.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	3:2
07.03.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:2
18.10.24	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:2
25.02.24	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:3
Saudi King Cup
11.12.23	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:5
Saudi Professional League
29.08.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	4:0
Arab Club Championship Cup
28.07.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	0:0

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