Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Francisco Zarco (Durango)


	Alacranes de Durango		Gavilanes de Matamoros

	1	X	2
	1.77	3.4	3.8
	1.81	3.5	3.85
	1.78	3.63	4.01	Watch
	1.76	3.54	4.02	Watch
	1.81	3.5	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.17)	3.51 ↑ (3.3)	3.91 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alacranes de Durango
50.9%

Draw
25.9%

Gavilanes de Matamoros
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

27.4%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26.4%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alacranes de Durango's performance.

Gavilanes de Matamoros has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gavilanes de Matamoros might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alacranes de Durango that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gavilanes de Matamoros than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gavilanes de Matamoros could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alacranes de Durango - Gavilanes de Matamoros Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, ⚽,
31', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 🟥,
90+4', 3 - 0, ⚽,
90+4', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alacranes de Durango won 4.

Recent matches Alacranes de Durango is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gavilanes Matamoros is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently opponents have a series of guest games.

Alacranes de Durango will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Alacranes de Durango won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 15:2 (average 2.5:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Alacranes de Durango won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11:1 (average 2.8:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
28.03.25	Correcaminos UAT 2 - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
22.03.25	Tigres de Álica - Alacranes de Durango	1:3 ✺
18.03.25	Tuzos UAZ - Alacranes de Durango	2:0 ✺
14.03.25	Alacranes de Durango - Real Apodaca	2:0 ✺
07.03.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWLWT
- Gavilanes de Matamoros
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
30.03.25	Real Apodaca - Gavilanes de Matamoros	3:2 penalties ✺
22.03.25	Gavilanes de Matamoros - Petroleros Salamanca	2:0 ✺
14.03.25	Halcones - Gavilanes de Matamoros	1:0 ✺
28.02.25	Aguacateros de Peribán - Gavilanes de Matamoros	3:0 ✺
08.02.25	Irapuato - Gavilanes de Matamoros	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
11.05.24	Alacranes de Durango - Gavilanes de Matamoros	1:0
09.03.24	Alacranes de Durango - Gavilanes de Matamoros	4:1
07.10.23	Gavilanes de Matamoros - Alacranes de Durango	0:3
12.02.22	Gavilanes de Matamoros - Alacranes de Durango	1:1
13.10.21	Alacranes de Durango - Gavilanes de Matamoros	1:0
02.10.20	Alacranes de Durango - Gavilanes de Matamoros	5:0

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