Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Francisco Zarco (Durango)

Referee: Delgadillo Franco O. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Alacranes de Durango		Tlaxcala

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.75	4.60
	1.6	3.75	4.8	Watch
	1.61	3.95	4.99
	1.62	4.05	5.04	Watch
	1.53	3.8	4.85
	1.55	3.8	5.22	Watch
	1.6	3.8	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.82)	3.84 ↑ (3.45)	4.89 ↑ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alacranes de Durango
57.6%

Draw
23.7%

Tlaxcala
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

26.7%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

25.6%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alacranes de Durango's performance.

Tlaxcala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Pelaez A. (G) 21. Oteo D. 35. Flores S. (C) 4. Munoz J. 13. Ontiveros A. 16. Dominguez R. 30. Escoboza A. 5. Cantu E. 7. Gutierrez L. 11. Morales L. 28. Torres J.	22. Bedolla P. (G) 1. Govea I. (C) 29. Trejo Castro M. A. 21. Garcia E. 2. Gonzalez C. 10. Figueroa F. 23. Gonzalez P. 25. Flores B. 7. Hernandez E. 24. Robles E. 19. Camacho Lastra R. E.
Substitutes
27. Angulo J. 2. Garcia A. 14. Lorona L. 12. Lozano M. 8. Montano T. 26. Munoz B. 1. Munoz J. (G) 17. Reyes Olguin J. I. 23. Siqueiros C. 6. Vega Hernandez C.	11. Alvarez D. 9. Christian 31. Hernandez R. 6. Iniestra A. 30. Nuno A. (G) 8. Plascencia F. 16. Ramirez M. 20. Sanchez A. 3. Santos E. 17. Zamudio J.
Coaches
Real H.	Ortega A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Hernandez E. (Penalty Awarded),
28', Flores B. 🟨,
45', Flores S. 🟨,
45+3', Gonzalez C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Oteo D. ↓, Lorona L. ↑,
46', Ontiveros A. ↓, Vega Hernandez C. ↑,
50', Govea I. 🟨,
52', Vega Hernandez C. 🟨,
55', Hernandez E. ↓, Alvarez D. ↑,
56', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Christian ↑,
63', Real H. 🟨,
67', Morales L. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
69', Flores B. ↓, Santos E. ↑,
69', Figueroa F. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
73', Gonzalez C. 🟨,
75', Torres J. ↓, Siqueiros C. ↑,
79', Dominguez R. ↓, Munoz B. ↑,
80', Robles E. ↓, Iniestra A. ↑,
90+2', Munoz J. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 1, Cantu E. ⚽,
90+9', Lorona L. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 15).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Tlaxcala may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alacranes de Durango is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alacranes de Durango won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Alacranes de Durango won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Alacranes de Durango	11	5	2	4	11:11	0	17
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	19:23	-4	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.08.26	Correcaminos UAT - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Alacranes de Durango - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Cancún - Alacranes de Durango	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Alacranes de Durango - Piratas de Veracruz	0:3 ✺
31.07.26	Atlético La Paz - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLLLW
- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
29.08.26	Tlaxcala - Venados	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	3:2 ✺
15.08.26	Dorados - Tlaxcala	2:2 ✺
06.08.26	Tlaxcala - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:2 ✺
31.07.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Tlaxcala	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.03.23	Tlaxcala - Alacranes de Durango	1:2
02.08.22	Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala	3:0

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