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Current Win Probability
Tlaxcala 37.2%
Draw 27.1%
Venados 35.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.5%
26.4%
31.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.4%
26.3%
31.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tlaxcala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tlaxcala's form might have worsened.
Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (+5.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tlaxcala, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venados than the current prediction. (-4.5%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
66.7%
0%
33.3%
Tlaxcala - Venados Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Tlaxcala will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Venados will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
30. Nuno A. (G) 1. Govea I. (C) 14. Vazquez B. 21. Garcia E. 29. Trejo Castro M. A. 10. Figueroa F. 25. Flores B. 23. Gonzalez P. 2. Gonzalez C. 7. Hernandez E. 19. Camacho Lastra R. E.
23. Castellanos R. (G) 31. Dominguez I. 13. Ochoa Brandon 22. Montelongo M. 14. Montiel S. 6. Torres E. 10. Dominguez A. (C) 11. Tejeda D. 16. Macias L. 7. Reyes J. 29. Lora S.
Substitutes
11. Alvarez D. 181. Bedolla P. (G) 31. Hernandez R. 6. Iniestra A. 8. Plascencia F. 16. Ramirez M. 24. Robles E. 20. Sanchez A. 3. Santos E. 17. Zamudio J.
18. Amador K. 17. Arroyo L. 20. Cruz J. 1. Gonzalez C. (G) 4. Grijalva A. 8. Kilani P. 9. Lazarte L. 34. Saucedo S. 30. Torres M.
Coaches
Ortega A.
Castro N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Garcia E. 🟨,
17', Montelongo M. 🟨,
17', Vazquez B. 🟨,
25', Reyes J. 🟨,
27', Torres E. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Govea I. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Torres E. ↓, Kilani P. ↑,
46', Montelongo M. ↓, Torres M. ↑,
59', Hernandez E. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
68', Gonzalez P. ↓, Plascencia F. ↑,
68', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Alvarez D. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Alvarez D. ⚽,
70', Tejeda D. ↓, Amador K. ↑,
70', Macias L. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,
78', Govea I. ↓, Santos E. ↑,
78', Figueroa F. ↓, Robles E. ↑,
81', Vazquez B. 🟨,
82', 2 - 1, Lora S. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Montiel S. 🟨,
84', Ochoa Brandon ↓, Grijalva A. ↑,
90', 🟥,
90+1', Alvarez D. (Penalty Awarded),
90+5', Torres M. 🟨,
90+7', 3 - 1, Alvarez D. ⚽, Robles E. (A),
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 1.
Tlaxcala is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Venados is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Venados may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Tlaxcala is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 0.8:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Tlaxcala won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1.1:0.6).
Mexico
Usa
Watch
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Nuno A. (G) 
Reyes J. 
Lora S. 
Lazarte L. 
Castro N. 
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