Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Albion Montevideo		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.38	Watch
	2.80	3.20	2.35
	2.8	3.15	2.35
	3.14	3.12	2.56
	2.88	3.25	2.45	Watch
	3.1	2.95	2.5
	2.84	3.16	2.5	Watch
	2.85	3.25	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.71)	3.14 ↓ (3.27)	2.44 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albion Montevideo
32.2%

Draw
29.6%

Defensor Sporting
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.5%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

27.1%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albion Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albion Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-3%)

Albion Montevideo - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jaume S. (G) 2. Couture F. 13. Lacoste P. (C) 24. de los Santos M. 29. Puente F. 6. Moschion T. 5. Ginella F. 11. Toledo H. 7. Zufiaurre I. 16. Alvarez J. 32. Figueroa T.	12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 14. Sorondo F. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 4. Rodriguez G. 5. Barrios G. 24. de los Santos L. 8. Wunsch N. 29. Pozzo T. A. 7. Medina N. 26. Montenegro B.
Substitutes
33. Abreu F. 30. Barcia B. 27. Costa S. 20. Gutierrez R. 80. Llana B. 17. Marichal M. 8. Neira N. 21. Rodriguez Trezza L. 31. Silva S. (G) 22. Vera A.	10. Biscayzacu X. 20. Caballero M. 18. Cafaro L. 30. Cuello E. 15. Frugone A. 1. Machado L. (G) 9. Neris J. 16. Perdomo A. 55. Rabunal M. 22. Torterolo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
28', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
35', Puente F. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Toledo H. ⚽,
42', De los Santos G. 🟨,
42', Zufiaurre I. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 0, Figueroa T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Medina N. ↓, Biscayzacu X. ↑,
46', Pozzo T. A. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
46', Rodriguez G. ↓, Frugone A. ↑,
51', Moschion T. 🟨,
62', 2 - 1, Sorondo F. ⚽,
63', Zufiaurre I. ↓, Barcia B. ↑,
63', Toledo H. ↓, Costa S. ↑,
67', Couture F. 🟨,
71', Couture F. ↓, Gutierrez R. ↑,
72', 3 - 1, Figueroa T. (Penalty Awarded),
78', Montenegro B. ↓, Neris J. ↑,
78', Wunsch N. ↓, Perdomo A. ↑,
81', Alvarez J. ↓, Llana B. ↑,
81', Ginella F. ↓, Neira N. ↑,
87', 3 - 2, Neris J. (Penalty Awarded),
90+5', Lacoste P. 🟨,

Preview

Albion has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Defensor Sporting has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Defensor Sporting may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Albion has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:8 (averaging 0.8:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Albion against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:5 goals (averaging 1:2.5 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Albion	9	1	0	8	9:18	-9	3

Last Results with these Odds

Albion Montevideo - the odds 2.71 are the expected chance of winning is 34.43%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Defensor Sporting - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.03%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albion Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Albion Montevideo	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:3 ✺
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Albion Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	3:1 ✺
07.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguay Copa
30.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
31.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Albion Montevideo	1:1
01.10.22	Defensor Sporting - Albion Montevideo	2:0
07.05.22	Albion Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:3
Uruguayan Segunda Division
29.09.21	Defensor Sporting - Albion Montevideo	0:1
16.06.21	Albion Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:2

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