Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 5

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Montevideo Wanderers		Progreso

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.5	Watch
	2.00	3.20	3.50
	2.02	3.1	3.6
	2.07	3.32	3.81
	2.05	3.25	3.69	Watch
	2.01	3.25	3.7
	2.03	3.28	3.69	Watch
	2.04	3.15	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.1)	3.23 ↓ (3.25)	3.64 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevideo Wanderers
45.8%

Draw
28.7%

Progreso
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevideo Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	14.3%	7.1%

Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Wanderers will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Progreso will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wanderers: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Buffa A. (G) 16. Alberti J. 21. Benitez S. 10. Cosentino L. 13. Formiliano F. 31. Furtado N. 30. Labandeira F. 5. Queiroz N. 80. Urretaviscaya J. 6. Zazpe L. 24. Zeballos J.	33. Requena A. (G) 24. Alvarez E. 13. Carroso H. 40. Cougo A. 25. Cristobal R. 17. De Leon F. 9. Dos Santos J. 11. Lopez N. 5. Pinheiro A. 27. Silva G. 18. Silva G.
Substitutes
14. Acosta M. 27. Blengio L. 3. Borthagaray G. 25. Freitas G. 17. Garcia A. 1. Govea G. (G) 20. Guzman S. 11. Luna J. 22. Porro E. 7. Rivero R. 9. Roque R.	2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 30. Codagnone A. 23. Copelotti M. 12. Fernandez L. (G) 8. Juambeltz M. 14. Kidd F. 10. Lemmo I. 15. Martin M. 7. Ocampo A. 4. Sosa G.
Coaches
Corujo M.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Zeballos J. ⚽,
30', Silva G. 🟨,
44', Dos Santos J. 🟨,
44', Queiroz N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Dos Santos J. ↓, Juambeltz M. ↑,
46', Silva G. ↓, Copelotti M. ↑,
48', 2 - 0, Cosentino L. ⚽,
57', Labandeira F. ↓, Luna J. ↑,
67', Cristobal R. ↓, Ocampo A. ↑,
67', Urretaviscaya J. ↓, Rivero R. ↑,
72', Cougo A. ↓, Kidd F. ↑,
75', Zeballos J. ↓, Freitas G. ↑,
82', Pinheiro A. ↓, Codagnone A. ↑,
89', Rivero R. 🟨,
90', Zazpe L. 🟨,
90', Freitas G. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wanderers won 1.

Wanderers is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Wanderers won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:21. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Wanderers won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:11. (average 2.1:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Wanderers	9	4	3	2	12:11	1	15
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.19%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.06.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	0:0 ✺
31.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Montevideo Wanderers	2:5 ✺
24.05.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
17.05.26	Albion Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	0:0 ✺
08.05.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 TWTTW
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.06.26	Progreso - Albion Montevideo	1:2 ✺
30.05.26	Danubio - Progreso	1:2 ✺
23.05.26	Progreso - Montevideo City Torque	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.26	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1
21.09.25	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0
27.03.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	1:1
10.11.24	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	0:0
14.07.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	4:2
04.05.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	2:0
31.07.21	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	2:0

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