Match Info

J1 League - Round 16

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Albirex Niigata		Urawa Red Diamonds

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.2	3.1	2.25
	3.11	3.07	2.3	Watch
	3.4	3.25	2.33
	3.27	3.22	2.31	Watch
	3.1	3	2.3
	3.23	3.27	2.32	Watch
	3.15	3.1	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (2.87)	3.15 ↓ (3.22)	2.3 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
29.2%

Draw
29.8%

Urawa Red Diamonds
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

29.3%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

29.5%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Urawa Red Diamonds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Urawa Red Diamonds than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Albirex Niigata - Urawa Red Diamonds Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Urawa will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Urawa (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Urawa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Yoshimitsu D. (G) 25. Fujiwara S. 2. Geria J. 5. Fitzgerald M. 42. Hashimoto K. 11. Danilo Gomes 22. Arai T. 19. Hoshi Y. 30. Okumura J. 41. Hasegawa M. 46. Kasai K.	16. Niekawa A. (G) 4. Ishihara H. 3. Danilo Boza 5. Hoibraaten M. 88. Naganuma Y. 6. Matsumoto T. 25. Yasui K. 77. Kaneko T. 13. Watanabe R. 8. Matheus Savio 24. Matsuo Y.
Substitutes
1. Fujita K. (G) 15. Hayakawa F. 31. Horigome Y. 16. Komi Y. 20. Miguel 8. Miyamoto E. 99. Ono Y. 33. Takagi Y. 9. Yamura K.	9. Haraguchi G. 35. Inoue R. 20. Nagakura M. 10. Nakajima S. 26. Ogiwara T. 21. Okubo T. 14. Sekine T. 18. Takahashi T. 31. Yoshida S. (G)
Coaches
Kimori D.	Skorza M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Watanabe R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Kasai K. 🟨,
65', Watanabe R. ↓, Nakajima S. ↑,
65', Matheus Savio ↓, Haraguchi G. ↑,
65', Kaneko T. ↓, Okubo T. ↑,
65', Kasai K. ↓, Komi Y. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Hasegawa M. ⚽,
78', Danilo Gomes 🟨,
78', Naganuma Y. ↓, Ogiwara T. ↑,
78', Matsumoto T. ↓, Nagakura M. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Nagakura M. ⚽, Ishihara H. (A),
86', Danilo Gomes ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
86', Hashimoto K. ↓, Horigome Y. ↑,
86', Hoshi Y. ↓, Miyamoto E. ↑,
90', Miyamoto E. 🟨,
90+1', Hasegawa M. ↓, Takagi Y. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 0.

In recent matches, Niigata has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Urawa is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Urawa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Urawa has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Urawa: Shibato K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Urawa: Nishikawa S. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 16:34. (average 0.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Niigata won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 1.2:2.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Albirex Niigata - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.87%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Urawa Red Diamonds - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.78%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League
03.05.25	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo	2:3 ✺
29.04.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Albirex Niigata	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Albirex Niigata	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Albirex Niigata - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
13.04.25	Albirex Niigata - Yokohama FC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 LWTLT
- Urawa Red Diamonds
Japan J1 League
06.05.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Gamba Osaka	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo Verdy	2:0 ✺
25.04.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:1 ✺
16.04.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kyoto Sanga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
08.12.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Albirex Niigata	0:0
11.05.24	Albirex Niigata - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:4
02.09.23	Albirex Niigata - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:1
18.03.23	Urawa Red Diamonds - Albirex Niigata	2:1
09.07.17	Urawa Red Diamonds - Albirex Niigata	2:1
14.05.17	Albirex Niigata - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:6
22.10.16	Albirex Niigata - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:2

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