Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 23

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ernesto Breda (Sesto San Giovanni)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 252


	Alcione		Padova

	1	X	2
	6.25	3.7	1.46
	5.6	3.55	1.44
	7.46	3.85	1.49	Watch
	7.5	3.7	1.44
	7.4	3.92	1.41	Watch
	5.6	3.55	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.64 ↑ (4.38)	3.71 ↑ (3.17)	1.45 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcione
13.6%

Draw
24.2%

Padova
62.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

28.1%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

27.2%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcione has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alcione's form might have worsened.

Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Padova's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alcione, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Padova, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alcione - Padova Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bacchin F. (G) 25. Pirola F. 6. Ciappellano D. 37. Stabile G. 3. Chierichetti P. 80. Bagatti N. 21. Bright K. 8. Bonaiti S. 33. Invernizzi A. 96. Palombi S. 29. Samele L.	1. Fortin M. (G) 72. Faedo C. 2. Delli Carri F. 5. Perrotta M. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 6. Crisetig L. (C) 14. Villa L. 7. Varas K. 21. Liguori M. 20. Bortolussi M.
Substitutes
44. Acella C. 22. Agazzi F. (G) 94. Bertolotti F. 23. Bertoni L. 19. Caremoli T. 20. Dimarco C. 16. Lanzi J. 31. Marconi M. 5. Miculi A. 11. Morselli F. 77. Pessolani G. 4. Piccinocchi M. 17. Pio Loco A.	99. Beccaro A. 15. Bianchi N. 22. Carniello M. (G) 11. Cretella C. 30. Favale G. 23. Granata A. 26. Kirwan N. 31. Pirrello R. 10. Russini S. 9. Spagnoli A. 12. Voltan M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Stabile G. 🟥,
24', 0 - 1, Bortolussi M. ⚽,
28', Fusi P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Palombi S. ↓, Dimarco C. ↑,
52', Varas K. 🟨,
56', Varas K. ↓, Russini S. ↑,
56', Fusi P. ↓, Bianchi N. ↑,
57', Capelli A. ↓, Kirwan N. ↑,
62', Faedo C. 🟨,
63', Samele L. ↓, Marconi M. ↑,
69', Bagatti N. ↓, Pessolani G. ↑,
72', Bortolussi M. ↓, Spagnoli A. ↑,
75', Liguori M. 🟨,
85', Invernizzi A. 🟨,
90+1', Villa L. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 2, Liguori M. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B).

Recent matches Alcione is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Padova is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Alcione could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Padova is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alcione won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Alcione
Italian Serie C Group A
11.01.25	Renate - Alcione	0:1 ✺
04.01.25	Virtus Verona - Alcione	1:0 ✺
20.12.24	Alcione - Atalanta U23	0:1 ✺
14.12.24	Giana Erminio - Alcione	0:2 ✺
08.12.24	Alcione - AlbinoLeffe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLLWL
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie C Group A
12.01.25	Padova - Union ArzignanoChiampo	1:1 ✺
05.01.25	Padova - Caldiero Terme	1:0 ✺
22.12.24	Trento - Padova	0:1 ✺
18.12.24	Union Clodiense - Padova	1:2 ✺
14.12.24	Padova - Lumezzane	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
14.09.24	Padova - Alcione	1:0

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