Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 38

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Ernesto Breda (Sesto San Giovanni) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	20:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Alcione		AlbinoLeffe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.68	3.1	2.48
	2.69	3.05	2.66
	2.68	3.05	2.59	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.5
	2.65	2.85	2.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.6)	2.97 ↓ (3.14)	2.57 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcione
34.1%

Draw
30.5%

AlbinoLeffe
35.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.4%

29.3%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

29.1%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcione has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

The chances for AlbinoLeffe have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AlbinoLeffe than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Alcione - AlbinoLeffe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Agazzi F. (G) 25. Pirola F. 6. Ciappellano D. 65. Giorgeschi S. 3. Chierichetti P. 70. Bright K. 23. Galli G. 7. Renault G. 21. Olivieri D. 11. Morselli F. 31. Marconi M.	12. Baldi G. (G) 27. Boloca G. 4. Potop S. 23. Sottini E. 8. Lombardi A. 18. Parlati S. 5. Mandelli A. 7. Garattoni A. 20. Ambrosini M. 60. Simonelli T. 10. De Paoli A.
Substitutes
33. Invernizzi A. 16. Lanzi J. 27. Lione M. 18. Lopes E. 5. Miculi A. 8. Muroni M. 10. Pitou J. 9. Plescia V. 1. Raffaelli F. (G) 17. Rebaudo R. 32. Tordini M. 30. Zamparo L.	21. Angeloni M. 6. Astrologo A. 2. Barba B. 1. Di Chiara S. (G) 22. Facchetti L. (G) 3. Giannini E. 59. Nespoli A. 11. Sali G. 33. Sciacca G. 9. Sorrentino L. 51. Trapletti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Ciappellano D. ⚽,
24', Lombardi A. 🟨,
32', Mandelli A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Boloca G. ↓, Sciacca G. ↑,
46', Simonelli T. ↓, Sali G. ↑,
54', Giorgeschi S. ↓, Miculi A. ↑,
56', 2 - 0, Bright K. ⚽,
59', Lombardi A. ↓, Astrologo A. ↑,
59', Mandelli A. ↓, Angeloni M. ↑,
67', Marconi M. ↓, Zamparo L. ↑,
67', Galli G. ↓, Lanzi J. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Astrologo A. ⚽,
69', Morselli F. 🟨,
69', Angeloni M. 🟨,
73', Bright K. 🟨,
74', Raffaelli F. 🟨,
79', Ambrosini M. ↓, Giannini E. ↑,
84', Morselli F. ↓, Plescia V. ↑,
84', Renault G. ↓, Pitou J. ↑,
90', Sottini E. 🟥,
90+1', Zamparo L. 🟨,
90+2', De Paoli A. 🟨,

Preview

Alcione is Qualified for Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)

Recent form of Alcione has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

AlbinoLeffe is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

AlbinoLeffe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Alcione won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Alcione won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Alcione Milano	11	3	6	2	18:17	1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Alcione - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.36%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Alcione
Italian Serie C Group A
19.04.26	Virtus Verona - Alcione	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Alcione - Lecco	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Trento - Alcione	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Alcione - Pro Vercelli	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Novara - Alcione	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLLTL
- UC AlbinoLeffe
Italian Serie C Group A
19.04.26	AlbinoLeffe - Triestina	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Ospitaletto - AlbinoLeffe	3:0 ✺
06.04.26	AlbinoLeffe - Pergolettese	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Lumezzane - AlbinoLeffe	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Virtus Verona - AlbinoLeffe	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
20.12.25	AlbinoLeffe - Alcione	2:0
18.04.25	AlbinoLeffe - Alcione	1:0
08.12.24	Alcione - AlbinoLeffe	0:2

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