Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 12

Date: 3 November 2025, Monday

Location: Stadio Ernesto Breda (Sesto San Giovanni)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Alcione		Pro Patria

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.05	3.95
	1.97	3.19	3.90	Watch
	1.98	2.91	4.5	Watch
	1.9	2.85	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (1.98)	3 (3)	4.11 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcione
47.1%

Draw
30.6%

Pro Patria
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

30.5%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

29%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcione has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Alcione - Pro Patria Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alcione will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcione (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:-1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Agazzi F. (G) 25. Pirola F. 6. Ciappellano D. 5. Miculi A. 73. Scuderi G. 7. Renault G. 23. Galli G. 70. Bright K. 10. Pitou J. 31. Marconi M. 11. Morselli F.	1. Rovida W. (G) 4. Reggiori P. 19. Travaglini C. 39. Motolese M. 27. Giudici L. 25. Ferri D. 5. Di Munno A. 80. Bagatti N. 93. Dimarco C. 11. Renelus B. 10. Mastroianni F.
Substitutes
94. Bertolotti F. 1. Cecchini F. (G) 3. Chierichetti P. 81. Gallazzi F. 65. Giorgeschi S. 16. Lanzi J. 27. Lione M. 18. Lopes E. 8. Muroni M. 21. Olivieri D. 17. Rebaudo R. 29. Samele L.	13. Aliata T. 15. Auci A. 14. Citterio G. 30. Ferrario L. 18. Galantatucci C. 56. Ganz S. 12. Gnonto R. (G) 24. Marra A. 21. Ricordi T. 40. Schiro T. 9. Udoh K. 6. Viti M. 22. Zamarian M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Di Munno A. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Marconi M. ⚽,
41', Travaglini C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Dimarco C. 🟨,
51', Galli G. 🟨,
54', Di Munno A. ↓, Citterio G. ↑,
54', Renelus B. ↓, Udoh K. ↑,
55', Bagatti N. 🟨,
69', 2 - 0, Bright K. ⚽,
70', Bagatti N. ↓, Schiro T. ↑,
71', Giudici L. ↓, Ricordi T. ↑,
72', Ciappellano D. 🟨,
81', Bright K. ↓, Lopes E. ↑,
84', Morselli F. ↓, Olivieri D. ↑,
88', Citterio G. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Recent form of Alcione has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pro Patria has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pro Patria may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alcione is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Alcione won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alcione won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Alcione
Coppa Italia Serie C
29.10.25	Atalanta U23 - Alcione	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group A
26.10.25	Giana Erminio - Alcione	1:1 ✺
17.10.25	Alcione - Inter U23	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	Pergolettese - Alcione	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Alcione - Vicenza Virtus	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LTLWL
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
26.10.25	Pro Patria - Ospitaletto	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Virtus Verona - Pro Patria	0:1 ✺
12.10.25	Pro Patria - Brescia	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Pro Patria - Trento	2:2 ✺
29.09.25	Cittadella - Pro Patria	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie C
17.08.25	Pro Patria - Alcione	1:2 penalties
Italian Serie C Group A
06.04.25	Pro Patria - Alcione	0:0
24.11.24	Alcione - Pro Patria	2:0
Club Friendly
26.08.23	Alcione - Pro Patria	3:3

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