Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca de Juárez)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Alebrijes de Oaxaca		Venados

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.6	2.1
	2.92	3.6	2.1
	3.45	4.16	1.99
	2.16	3.33	3.26	Watch
	2.8	3.4	2.15
	2.95	3.58	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.65)	3.61 ↓ (3.78)	2.29 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
33.1%

Draw
26%

Venados
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

24.8%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Venados Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 4. Alvarez K. (C) 25. Andrey Marcos 6. Arellano A. 177. Bustos J. 10. Carballo E. 175. Gallinar S. 3. Justo A. 29. Meza S. 2. Santos E. 5. Vazquez Garza H. A.	1. Reyes D. (G) 7. Calero J. 2. Casillas J. 19. Catalan A. 8. Dominguez A. 23. Galvan P. 10. Guzman W. 5. Miranda J. 15. Navarrete D. 22. Sancho J. 33. Vidrio N. (C)
Substitutes
178. Aguilar Galvan M. E. 132. Ascencio E. 1. Cruz J. 7. Lopez D. 15. Lopez E. 20. Mendoza Cendejas E. J. 33. Olaguez E. 171. Ramirez L. A. (G) 24. Rojas D. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.	12. Acosta C. 18. Amador K. 28. Delgado A. (G) 16. Espinosa E. 4. Grijalva A. 3. Levin J. 21. Lopez C. 6. Lopez F. 11. Madrid W. 25. Trejo Castro M. A.
Coaches
Alvarado A.	Garcia I. C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Calero J. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Meza S. ⚽, Carballo E. (A),
33', Bustos J. 🟨,
42', Andrey Marcos 🟨,
44', Calero J. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Guzman W. ⚽, Navarrete D. (A),
45+3', 2 - 2, Carballo E. ⚽, Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Dominguez A. ↓, Amador K. ↑,
46', Sancho J. ↓, Trejo Castro M. A. ↑,
46', 3 - 2, Bustos J. ⚽, Andrey Marcos (A),
47', Carballo E. 🟨,
58', 3 - 3, Miranda J. ⚽, Guzman W. (A),
59', 4 - 3, Meza S. ⚽, Gallinar S. (A),
64', Miranda J. ↓, Lopez C. ↑,
64', Andrey Marcos ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
65', Santos E. 🟨,
73', 4 - 4, Calero J. (Pen),
75', Galvan P. ↓, Acosta C. ↑,
77', Acosta C. ↓, Grijalva A. ↑,
79', Gallinar S. ↓, Aguilar Galvan M. E. ↑,
79', Bustos J. ↓, Cruz J. ↑,
90+4', Meza S. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
90+5', Alvarez K. 🟨,
90+14', 4 - 5, Calero J. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 2.

Venados may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:16. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 1.3:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
23.08.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:2 ✺
15.08.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Cancún	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:1 ✺
19.04.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Dorados	2:2 ✺
11.04.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TLLTL
- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.08.25	Venados - Atlético La Paz	3:3 ✺
16.08.25	Dorados - Venados	1:0 ✺
08.08.25	Venados - Tapatío	1:3 ✺
01.08.25	Irapuato - Venados	4:1 ✺
27.04.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
21.02.25	Venados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1
08.09.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Venados	1:0
12.03.24	Venados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1
05.09.23	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Venados	2:1
18.01.23	Venados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1
07.07.22	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Venados	0:0
09.02.22	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Venados	1:0

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