Match Info

National League North - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday


	Alfreton Town		AFC Telford United

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.5
	2.48	3.3	2.58
	2.54	3.35	2.69
	2.94	2.50	2.98	Watch
	2.53	3.18	2.63
	2	3.4	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (1.93)	3.21 ↓ (3.4)	2.79 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
37.5%

Draw
29.1%

AFC Telford United
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

26.4%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

26.9%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alfreton Town's form might have worsened.

AFC Telford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AFC Telford United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alfreton Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Telford United than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AFC Telford United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alfreton Town - AFC Telford United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alfreton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, Samuels A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alfreton won 5.

Recent form of Alfreton has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Telford is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alfreton won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:21. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alfreton won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Spalding United - Alfreton Town	3:0 ✺
English National League North
06.09.25	Alfreton Town - King`s Lynn Town	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Oxford City - Alfreton Town	5:0 ✺
30.08.25	Hereford - Alfreton Town	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Alfreton Town - Marine	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTLLW
- AFC Telford United
English FA Cup
13.09.25	AFC Telford United - Kidderminster Harriers	3:1 ✺
English National League North
06.09.25	Chorley - AFC Telford United	3:1 ✺
02.09.25	AFC Telford United - Peterborough Sports	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	AFC Telford United - Spennymoor Town	3:0 ✺
25.08.25	Darlington - AFC Telford United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
18.02.23	Alfreton Town - AFC Telford United	1:0
29.10.22	AFC Telford United - Alfreton Town	1:2
05.03.22	AFC Telford United - Alfreton Town	2:3
11.09.21	Alfreton Town - AFC Telford United	3:1
31.10.20	AFC Telford United - Alfreton Town	0:1
01.01.20	Alfreton Town - AFC Telford United	1:1
26.12.19	AFC Telford United - Alfreton Town	3:0

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