Match Info

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday


	Alfreton Town		Bury

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.40	1.98
	3.1	3.83	2.03	Watch
	3.16	3.42	2.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (3.09)	3.55 ↓ (3.83)	2 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
29.2%

Draw
25.5%

Bury
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

24.2%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

23.4%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Bury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bury than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Alfreton Town - Bury Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 8th and 10th).

Alfreton has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Bury is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Alfreton may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bury has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Bury holding a narrow advantage.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Alfreton	12	6	0	6	18:13	5	18
10	Bury	10	5	1	4	19:9	10	16

Last Results with these Odds

Alfreton Town - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.04%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English NPL Premier Division
06.10.26	Alfreton Town - United of Manchester	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Redcar Athletic - Alfreton Town	3:1 ✺
29.09.26	Alfreton Town - Guiseley	1:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.09.26	Alfreton Town - Shifnal Town	2:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Bamber Bridge - Alfreton Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWL
- Bury FC
English NPL Premier Division
06.10.26	Stockton Town - Bury	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Bury - Bromsgrove Sporting	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.09.26	Bury - Gainsborough Trinity	4:3 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
19.09.26	Bury - Workington	5:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Bury - Emley	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWWW

Alfreton Town - Bury: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide