Match Info

Turkish Cup - Round 4

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Aliaga Ataturk Stadyumu (Izmir)

Referee: Mertoglu E. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	A Spor
Turkey	A Spor


	Aliaga		Gençlerbirliği

	1	X	2
	5	4.2	1.5
	5.44	4.29	1.52	Watch
	4.75	4.53	1.52
	3.66	2.84	2.25	Watch
	4.8	4	1.5
	5.16	4.5	1.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.8 ↓ (7.21)	4.06 ↓ (4.97)	1.63 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aliaga
19.5%

Draw
23%

Gençlerbirliği
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.8%

18.5%

68.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.8%

16%

59.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aliaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aliaga's performance.

Gençlerbirliği has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gençlerbirliği might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aliaga than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gençlerbirliği than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Aliaga - Gençlerbirliği Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Aliaga (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aliaga (2.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gençlerbirliği will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aliaga (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Anteplioglu K. (G) 48. Kartal E. 35. Picinciol S. 37. Paykoc K. 3. Kanci O. 24. Sarikaya M. 20. Saymak M. 9. Ozek A. (C) 88. Keskin E. 33. Kaya S. 18. Babaoglu T.	18. Erenturk E. (G) 88. Uzum F. 4. Zuzek Z. 25. Islamoglu U. 23. Hanousek M. (C) 53. Varesanovic D. 61. Kemaloglu E. 8. Onur S. 99. Canak C. 16. Ayaz Ozcan F. 77. Dursun A.
Substitutes
76. Adar K. 11. Akar E. 17. Kavaklidere H. 14. Kilinc K. 44. Ozdemir N. 8. Say F. 55. Yalcin M. (G) 22. Yildirim O. 23. Yilmaz G.	93. Aydar Y. 33. Aydin E. (G) 58. Baycu E. 44. Celik A. 42. Diabate O. 11. Gurpuz G. 94. Hasan Temel Y. 30. Kiskanc S.
Coaches
Cetin P.	Sahin L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Kartal E. ↓, Kavaklidere H. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Dursun A. ↓, Aydar Y. ↑,
46', Kemaloglu E. ↓, Gurpuz G. ↑,
52', Kavaklidere H. 🟨,
55', 0 - 1, Onur S. (Penalty Awarded),
59', 0 - 2, Aydar Y. ⚽, Gurpuz G. (A),
61', Islamoglu U. 🟨,
68', 0 - 3, Onur S. ⚽, Gurpuz G. (A),
70', Babaoglu T. ↓, Kilinc K. ↑,
70', Saymak M. ↓, Yilmaz G. ↑,
70', Kanci O. ↓, Adar K. ↑,
73', Ozek A. ↓, Akar E. ↑,
78', Canak C. ↓, Hasan Temel Y. ↑,
78', Islamoglu U. ↓, Diabate O. ↑,
87', Varesanovic D. ↓, Kiskanc S. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 3, Kaya S. ⚽, Kavaklidere H. (A),

Preview

Aliaga is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gençlerbirliği has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Aliaga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gençlerbirliği is the undeniable favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aliaga FK
Turkish Second League Red Group
28.02.26	Aliaga - 1461 Trabzon	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Aliaga - Muş Spor	4:0 ✺
09.02.26	Aliaga - Somaspor	3:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.02.26	Konyaspor - Aliaga	5:0 ✺
Turkish Second League Red Group
01.02.26	Ankara Demirspor - Aliaga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWTLW
- Gençlerbirliği
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Gençlerbirliği - Kayserispor	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Eyüpspor - Gençlerbirliği	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Gençlerbirliği - Çaykur Rizespor	2:2 ✺
09.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Gençlerbirliği	3:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
04.02.26	Gençlerbirliği - Eyüpspor	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLTLT

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